From: http://springboarder.blogspot.com/2008/12/logistics-watch-gazprom-shuts-off.html
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Logistics Watch: Gazprom Shuts Off Ukraine
"Still watching that Gaza thing? Well, while you were out, Russia put the Ukraine under a gas embargo--in January, no less:
Negotiations over gas prices between Russia and Ukraine unraveled Wednesday and executives at Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, said they were preparing to halt supplies early Thursday morning.
If they do, customers in Western Europe will see shortages as the same pipelines in Ukraine are used for export and internal distribution. It is a problem that has bedeviled Europe’s energy supplies from Russia for years.
How quickly Western Europe would feel a shortage of natural gas was unclear, and would depend on the scale and duration of any Russian embargo of Ukraine. The fuel is used for heating and to generate electricity, and winter is the period of peak demand.
As in the past, the dispute blends political and economic grievances.
But the economic pressure on Ukraine is likely to be viewed through the lens of the war in Georgia in August, and Russia’s subsequent claim to a privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet republics. Like Georgia, Ukraine has angered Russia by seeking membership in the NATO alliance.
In comments broadcast on Russian state television Wednesday evening, the prime minister, Vladimir Putin said any interference with Russia’s gas exports to Europe would carry “serious consequences for the transit country itself,” without elaborating.
Funny how these far-from-sea events have such interesting consequences...Particularly since we're pushing a logistical path to Afghanistan that goes through the Black Sea."
Posted by Springbored at 12:15 PM
Labels: afghanistan, black sea, Russia, ukraine
December 31, 2008
December 29, 2008
Bailout Beneficiary Goldman Sachs Bets Against Hawaii?
Larry did such a good job on this, I hope he won't mind me re-posting it here:
From Disappearednews.com:
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Merry Christmas Hawaii but no Happy New Year—Wall Street is betting against us with “credit-default swaps”
by Larry Geller
"Eleven states, including Hawaii, are the target of a new investment bank scheme to actually drive our economy into distress for their own profit.
Christmas came early on Wall Street for financial firms whose stockings were overstuffed with billions of dollars of taxpayer money. It was an unprecedented handout (formerly called a “bailout”) that assured CEOs their holidays would be merry and that champagne would flow freely aboard their yachts today.
So, with their narrow escape from yachtlessness, did the CEOs learn not to play with derivatives and mortgage-based securities? No, they seem unrepentant.
For those of us in Hawaii wondering where our next manapua will come from, it was not good news to read that Wall Street is not only betting against our state economy, they are investing in its failure. In order to make their investments pay off, they have to work to see that we fail. Hey, it’s the free market, either you believe in it or you don’t.
Goldman Sachs, which received a $10 billion bailout, is using that money for a variety of investments (other than helping out homeowners facing foreclosure, of course). They are still playing with derivatives. In fact, they are using these exotic instruments to enrich themselves by worsening a recession that they, of course, helped to bring about.
They are pushing “credit-default swaps” that will work if they can find a way to drive 11 states farther into the economic dumps.
Here’s how it works:
As part of a September presentation to institutional investors on 'Best Long and Short Risk Strategies,' Goldman recommended buying credit-default swaps on 'a basket of liquid State General Obligation credits with current and worsening fiscal outlooks,' including California, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The firm also recommended the derivatives on states with 'significant unfunded pension' and other retiree obligations, including Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Nevada.
The practice of betting against such states is 'distasteful,' said Frank Hoadley, Wisconsin’s director of capital finance in Madison. [Bloomberg News, Goldman Draws Ire for Advising Default Swaps Against New Jersey, 12/10/2008 ]
The same article notes that Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch have also recommended using swaps to bet against state credit. That’s how it works. Wall Street “talks down” state credit worthiness in an effort to make these derivatives succeed. The more firms that get on this bandwagon, the faster it will move.
New Jersey was the first to react:
The advice would cost state taxpayers if investors believe New Jersey bonds appear riskier than they actually are -- and force the state to pay higher interest rates on future bonds.
While not illegal, it is troubling Goldman Sachs almost simultaneously marketed New Jersey bonds to one set of investors, while suggesting to others they would be smart to buy insurance from the investment bank because those bonds may not be repaid, according to Geoffrey M. Heal, professor of public policy and business responsibility at Columbia University. [Pro Publica, Goldman Sachs Sells New Jersey Bonds, Then Warns of Default, 11/24/2008]
These Wall-Street firms talk down Hawaii and the other ten states in order to assure their derivatives pay off, but of course it is at taxpayer expense:
Goldman’s strategy of shorting municipal bonds of fiscally depressed states could ultimately result in even more problems for taxpayers. Concerns about a state’s credit quality often means bond prices go down. In turn, that can drive up the interest rate states and municipalities must pay to borrow money. And it all affects taxpayers. An increase of one percentage point on a $1 billion bond issue translates into a cost to taxpayers of an additional $10 million a year in interest. [Maddox Hargett & Caruso website, Goldman Sachs Profiting From Financial Problems Of Some States, 12/10/2008]
There were no new regulations put in place that would prevent this and other shenanigans on the part of those firms our government chose to bail out. Bush has never been in a regulatory mood. Will Obama do any better?
If you see him around Kailua, maybe mention this to him. Thanks."
Tags: Hawaii, derivatives, Goldman Sachs, credit-default swaps, swaps
Linda, why would your Republican buddies be betting against Hawaii?
Aloha, Brad
From Disappearednews.com:
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Merry Christmas Hawaii but no Happy New Year—Wall Street is betting against us with “credit-default swaps”
by Larry Geller
"Eleven states, including Hawaii, are the target of a new investment bank scheme to actually drive our economy into distress for their own profit.
Christmas came early on Wall Street for financial firms whose stockings were overstuffed with billions of dollars of taxpayer money. It was an unprecedented handout (formerly called a “bailout”) that assured CEOs their holidays would be merry and that champagne would flow freely aboard their yachts today.
So, with their narrow escape from yachtlessness, did the CEOs learn not to play with derivatives and mortgage-based securities? No, they seem unrepentant.
For those of us in Hawaii wondering where our next manapua will come from, it was not good news to read that Wall Street is not only betting against our state economy, they are investing in its failure. In order to make their investments pay off, they have to work to see that we fail. Hey, it’s the free market, either you believe in it or you don’t.
Goldman Sachs, which received a $10 billion bailout, is using that money for a variety of investments (other than helping out homeowners facing foreclosure, of course). They are still playing with derivatives. In fact, they are using these exotic instruments to enrich themselves by worsening a recession that they, of course, helped to bring about.
They are pushing “credit-default swaps” that will work if they can find a way to drive 11 states farther into the economic dumps.
Here’s how it works:
As part of a September presentation to institutional investors on 'Best Long and Short Risk Strategies,' Goldman recommended buying credit-default swaps on 'a basket of liquid State General Obligation credits with current and worsening fiscal outlooks,' including California, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The firm also recommended the derivatives on states with 'significant unfunded pension' and other retiree obligations, including Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Nevada.
The practice of betting against such states is 'distasteful,' said Frank Hoadley, Wisconsin’s director of capital finance in Madison. [Bloomberg News, Goldman Draws Ire for Advising Default Swaps Against New Jersey, 12/10/2008 ]
The same article notes that Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch have also recommended using swaps to bet against state credit. That’s how it works. Wall Street “talks down” state credit worthiness in an effort to make these derivatives succeed. The more firms that get on this bandwagon, the faster it will move.
New Jersey was the first to react:
The advice would cost state taxpayers if investors believe New Jersey bonds appear riskier than they actually are -- and force the state to pay higher interest rates on future bonds.
While not illegal, it is troubling Goldman Sachs almost simultaneously marketed New Jersey bonds to one set of investors, while suggesting to others they would be smart to buy insurance from the investment bank because those bonds may not be repaid, according to Geoffrey M. Heal, professor of public policy and business responsibility at Columbia University. [Pro Publica, Goldman Sachs Sells New Jersey Bonds, Then Warns of Default, 11/24/2008]
These Wall-Street firms talk down Hawaii and the other ten states in order to assure their derivatives pay off, but of course it is at taxpayer expense:
Goldman’s strategy of shorting municipal bonds of fiscally depressed states could ultimately result in even more problems for taxpayers. Concerns about a state’s credit quality often means bond prices go down. In turn, that can drive up the interest rate states and municipalities must pay to borrow money. And it all affects taxpayers. An increase of one percentage point on a $1 billion bond issue translates into a cost to taxpayers of an additional $10 million a year in interest. [Maddox Hargett & Caruso website, Goldman Sachs Profiting From Financial Problems Of Some States, 12/10/2008]
There were no new regulations put in place that would prevent this and other shenanigans on the part of those firms our government chose to bail out. Bush has never been in a regulatory mood. Will Obama do any better?
If you see him around Kailua, maybe mention this to him. Thanks."
Tags: Hawaii, derivatives, Goldman Sachs, credit-default swaps, swaps
Linda, why would your Republican buddies be betting against Hawaii?
Aloha, Brad
December 28, 2008
Protests Demand State Withdraw Ceded Lands Petition in U.S. Supreme Court
"Hawaiian rights activists line Kuhio Highway"
Protest a ‘solidarity action’ with O‘ahu rally
By Michael Levine - The Garden Island - December 27, 2008
"A group of 25 to 30 activists lined both sides of Kuhio Highway in Lihu‘e yesterday afternoon, waving Hawaiian flags and holding signs voicing their displeasure with Gov. Linda Lingle’s handling of the controversial ceded lands issue.
The demonstration, organized by the Kaua‘i Alliance for Peace and Social Justice, was described by those involved as a “solidarity action” with a similar protest taking place in front of the state Capitol on O‘ahu. That rally drew about 100 people, according to an Associated Press report.
At issue is the Lingle administration’s continued appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn a Hawai‘i Supreme Court ruling handed down in January that prohibited the state from selling or transferring more than a million acres of public lands that had belonged to the Hawaiian monarchy prior to the 1893 overthrow...
Yesterday’s protests were designed to “pressure the Lingle administration to back off its appeal to the Supreme Court and honor the moratorium on the sale of the lands,” according to literature distributed by the Kaua‘i Alliance for Peace and Social Justice.
“Lingle uses the idea that the general public needs to benefit from this land, but as a member of the general public, I don’t want to benefit at the expense of the native Hawaiians,” said Katy Rose, one of the events organizers...
“It’s important because this land [state harbors] used to belong to the native Hawaiians,” said Raymond Catania, another activist...
“Lingle uses the idea that the general public needs to benefit from this land, but as a member of the general public, I don’t want to benefit at the expense of the native Hawaiians,” said Katy Rose, one of the events organizers...
“It’s important because this land [state harbors] used to belong to the native Hawaiians,” said Raymond Catania, another activist...
Community organizer Jimmy Trujillo agreed...“It’s just an opportunity for the community to show (its) displeasure with the current administration’s decision to ask the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the state Supreme Court decision,” Trujillo said, describing Lingle’s action “fraud” and “illegal.” “To sell stolen property is a crime in most courts, but that’s what our governor is trying to do.”
...'People have the right to protest and let their voices be heard,' Hawai‘i Attorney General Mark Bennett said, 'and we’re certainly listening.'" >> Full article here.
Aloha, Brad
FUNNY! Election Revisited One Last Time
Robin Williams doesn't comment on Obama's backtracking since the election, but this is funny nevertheless, esp. his jokes about Palin:
Aloha, Brad
Aloha, Brad
December 27, 2008
Power Outage: 'Waikiki plunges into chaos'...Paper without Editors
OMG, combine dramatic cutbacks at the local paper with a simple little power outage and you get the following:
Posted at 11:01 p.m., Friday, December 26, 2008
Waikiki plunges into chaos, then calm
by Advertiser Staff
"...'The wather [water] is nice,' Chris Pound said as he sat in a beach chair looking out into the dark Pacific Ocean. Becca Pound said the ourage [outage] was nothing compared to the icestorm [ice storm] the couple went through in Oklahoma a few years back when they had water and gas but no electricity in their home for 10 consecutive days. Also glad to be stuck in a Waikiki hotel lobby were Sandi and Barry Hartstein of Chicago, who were checking in at the Kalia Tower, after a week at the Ihilahi [Ihilani] Hotel and Resort, when the outage occurred. 'We were able to get out [our] stuff up the service elevator,' Barry Hartstein said...
...'We [are] at peace over here,' the elder Bobby Wood said...
...At least one elevator was operating at the Kalia and Tapa towers, two of Waikikis ['s] newest hotels. Dozens of guests waited in line there as well I [in] order to travel up to their rooms...
[The following is a nice story, although still with a few typos.]
Todd Nishimura of 'Ewa Beach and Kelli Sato of Waikele, who have been dating for about five months, were having the main course of a belated Christmas dinner at Sorrento's at the top of the Ilikai when the outage struck. The two stayed at the restaurant for dessert and waited for the elevator to start operating again so they [could] catch it back down the lobby. Rather than brave the drive back to West O'ahu right away, the two decided to take in the sites in Waikiki. They settled on a quiet table outside the Tapa Tower where they people-watched and talked story. Nishimura said he was impressed that for the most part, the people they came across were taking the situation in stride and [not] showing signs of panic or frustration. Some even asked him to take pictures of them. 'I think people are just accepting it,' he said."
Yes indeed, I don't know why we should expect good investigative reporting from the Honolulu newspapers when it appears that their editors must be tied up correcting typographical errors much of the time, except when there are black-outs, and then we get some real insight into their reporting.
Aloha, Brad
Posted at 11:01 p.m., Friday, December 26, 2008
Waikiki plunges into chaos, then calm
by Advertiser Staff
"...'The wather [water] is nice,' Chris Pound said as he sat in a beach chair looking out into the dark Pacific Ocean. Becca Pound said the ourage [outage] was nothing compared to the icestorm [ice storm] the couple went through in Oklahoma a few years back when they had water and gas but no electricity in their home for 10 consecutive days. Also glad to be stuck in a Waikiki hotel lobby were Sandi and Barry Hartstein of Chicago, who were checking in at the Kalia Tower, after a week at the Ihilahi [Ihilani] Hotel and Resort, when the outage occurred. 'We were able to get out [our] stuff up the service elevator,' Barry Hartstein said...
...'We [are] at peace over here,' the elder Bobby Wood said...
...At least one elevator was operating at the Kalia and Tapa towers, two of Waikikis ['s] newest hotels. Dozens of guests waited in line there as well I [in] order to travel up to their rooms...
[The following is a nice story, although still with a few typos.]
Todd Nishimura of 'Ewa Beach and Kelli Sato of Waikele, who have been dating for about five months, were having the main course of a belated Christmas dinner at Sorrento's at the top of the Ilikai when the outage struck. The two stayed at the restaurant for dessert and waited for the elevator to start operating again so they [could] catch it back down the lobby. Rather than brave the drive back to West O'ahu right away, the two decided to take in the sites in Waikiki. They settled on a quiet table outside the Tapa Tower where they people-watched and talked story. Nishimura said he was impressed that for the most part, the people they came across were taking the situation in stride and [not] showing signs of panic or frustration. Some even asked him to take pictures of them. 'I think people are just accepting it,' he said."
Yes indeed, I don't know why we should expect good investigative reporting from the Honolulu newspapers when it appears that their editors must be tied up correcting typographical errors much of the time, except when there are black-outs, and then we get some real insight into their reporting.
Aloha, Brad
Report on the Current State of Visitor Occupancy Numbers in Hawaii...Trouble Ahead
Every year during Christmas and New Year's, Hawaii usually gets a surge of visitors that bring almost all of the hotels to 100% occupancy levels. We in the visitor industry always look forward to it. Traditionally it is a fun time with lots of visitors; actually, usually too many for the facilities and infrastructure, but it usually only lasts 2 weeks, so we go with the flow and enjoy it.
Last year the Christmas and New Year's rush only lasted 1 week. That was when I knew something was up with the Mainland and Hawaii economies and shortly thereafter decided to start this blog because after those of us who noticed the visitor spending slump that began in Nov. and Dec. of 2007, there was no mention of it by neither the economists nor Lingle nor other elected officials not in December, January, nor February. It wasn't until Aloha and ATA failed in late March because of the slump that the economists and elected officials finally became aware of it. A couple of months ago traditional economists finally declared officially that the nationwide recession began in December 2007.
Right now we are at just such another dramatic turn of events again, and I suspect the traditional economists, Governor, and elected officials are again not aware of it. What is it that is happening now?
This year we don't even have just 1 week of 100% occupancy in all of the hotels and major accomodation properties throughout Hawaii. In particular, two days ago I surveyed some full accomodation properties on Kauai and was shocked to find that many of them are not even at 50% occupancy. The next day, yesterday, I called a friend on Maui with high level contacts inside the visitor industry, and he reported that there are many hotels there that are not at 100% when they normally would be, even though they are having their low level employees tell most inquiries that they are fully booked, but many are not. Further, the visitors that are there are noticeably on tighter budgets.
Furthermore, my friend noted that there are 4 major restaurants/bars in Lahaina that based on the Fall and now this Christmas season are planning on shutting down and going out of business in the next few months. He mentioned those restaurants by name; they are major institutional names, but I will leave them anonymous for now.
My point in all of this is that the visitor levels we are not having right now, that we normally would be, is a clear indication of a dramatic decline in revenue to the state now and in the months ahead. Just like last December and January, when Lingle among other things was proposing the State buy and manage a resort, I don't think Lingle and most of the Legislature have any idea of the significance of what is happening right now in the visitor industry. This doesn't even consider the effect of the nationwide $1.5 trillion Alt. A's and Option Arm's mortgage industry problems that will begin in about a month or two when the terms of those start to re-adjust.
It may not be until March again that the Governor and Legislature acknowledge the significance of what is happening right now because of the fact that they rely on lagging indicators. If you thought 2008 was a shock for the Hawaii visitor industry, you ain't seen nothin' yet, 2009's gonna be a wild ride.
The trick to this is to cut your expenses to the minimum and enjoy what we have here that is free,
Aloha, Brad
Last year the Christmas and New Year's rush only lasted 1 week. That was when I knew something was up with the Mainland and Hawaii economies and shortly thereafter decided to start this blog because after those of us who noticed the visitor spending slump that began in Nov. and Dec. of 2007, there was no mention of it by neither the economists nor Lingle nor other elected officials not in December, January, nor February. It wasn't until Aloha and ATA failed in late March because of the slump that the economists and elected officials finally became aware of it. A couple of months ago traditional economists finally declared officially that the nationwide recession began in December 2007.
Right now we are at just such another dramatic turn of events again, and I suspect the traditional economists, Governor, and elected officials are again not aware of it. What is it that is happening now?
This year we don't even have just 1 week of 100% occupancy in all of the hotels and major accomodation properties throughout Hawaii. In particular, two days ago I surveyed some full accomodation properties on Kauai and was shocked to find that many of them are not even at 50% occupancy. The next day, yesterday, I called a friend on Maui with high level contacts inside the visitor industry, and he reported that there are many hotels there that are not at 100% when they normally would be, even though they are having their low level employees tell most inquiries that they are fully booked, but many are not. Further, the visitors that are there are noticeably on tighter budgets.
Furthermore, my friend noted that there are 4 major restaurants/bars in Lahaina that based on the Fall and now this Christmas season are planning on shutting down and going out of business in the next few months. He mentioned those restaurants by name; they are major institutional names, but I will leave them anonymous for now.
My point in all of this is that the visitor levels we are not having right now, that we normally would be, is a clear indication of a dramatic decline in revenue to the state now and in the months ahead. Just like last December and January, when Lingle among other things was proposing the State buy and manage a resort, I don't think Lingle and most of the Legislature have any idea of the significance of what is happening right now in the visitor industry. This doesn't even consider the effect of the nationwide $1.5 trillion Alt. A's and Option Arm's mortgage industry problems that will begin in about a month or two when the terms of those start to re-adjust.
It may not be until March again that the Governor and Legislature acknowledge the significance of what is happening right now because of the fact that they rely on lagging indicators. If you thought 2008 was a shock for the Hawaii visitor industry, you ain't seen nothin' yet, 2009's gonna be a wild ride.
The trick to this is to cut your expenses to the minimum and enjoy what we have here that is free,
Aloha, Brad
An Omen to Obama of Oahu's Electricity Problem of the Future
From: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=6533956
"Hawaii Island of Oahu Without Power"
Power outage hits main Hawaiian island during heavy rain, lightning; over 800,000 in dark
By DAVID BRISCOE Associated Press
HONOLULU December 27, 2008
"The island of Oahu lost power Friday evening in the midst of heavy rain and lightning, leaving some 800,000 residents and thousands of tourists in the dark, as well as the neighborhood where President-elect Barack Obama was vacationing.
Residents were being advised by the power company and civil authorities to get to their homes and store water. Several radio stations were broadcasting emergency information.
Gov. Linda Lingle said that Hawaiian Electric Light was taking an emergency generator to the compound on the east side of the island where Obama has been staying. Lingle said she had asked the utility to notify her when it had been delivered...
The outage closed stores at major retail outlets just after sunset, halting post-Christmas shopping a couple of hours early. Residents were trapped in parking lots and highways were clogged as everyone tried to get home at once...
Full story at: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=6533956
Aloha, Brad
"Hawaii Island of Oahu Without Power"
Power outage hits main Hawaiian island during heavy rain, lightning; over 800,000 in dark
By DAVID BRISCOE Associated Press
HONOLULU December 27, 2008
"The island of Oahu lost power Friday evening in the midst of heavy rain and lightning, leaving some 800,000 residents and thousands of tourists in the dark, as well as the neighborhood where President-elect Barack Obama was vacationing.
Residents were being advised by the power company and civil authorities to get to their homes and store water. Several radio stations were broadcasting emergency information.
Gov. Linda Lingle said that Hawaiian Electric Light was taking an emergency generator to the compound on the east side of the island where Obama has been staying. Lingle said she had asked the utility to notify her when it had been delivered...
The outage closed stores at major retail outlets just after sunset, halting post-Christmas shopping a couple of hours early. Residents were trapped in parking lots and highways were clogged as everyone tried to get home at once...
Full story at: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=6533956
Aloha, Brad
Northshore Kauai Farmer's Markets
Jus' information, more for me to be able to refer to:
http://realkauai.com/FarmersMarkets/#Private
Privately Run Farmer's Markets
Tuesday
Waipa (Hanalei)
Hawaiian Farmers of Hanalei (Waipa)
2:00 pm
Waipa Ahupuaa Field
Be there early with your running shoes! Consumers are not allowed in until the actual start of the allowed selling period. This means that people dash in as soon as the rope goes down. Not quite as much of a foot race as the Koloa Sunshine Market- but close. Good place to look for Organic Produce. About 50%-75% of the farmers can have Organic Produce, depending on who's there at any given market. Run by people who sell the flowers at the entrance, so no other flowers sold there. Farmers do not need Sunshine Market permits to sell at this market, and the market fees are paid by the farmers on a per market basis. Non-food items sold there occasionally as well, such as handmade jewelry made out of materials from nature (shells, seeds, etc.). Most beautiful setting for a farmer's market - worth checking out for the ambiance.
Saturday
Hanalei
9:30 am
Hanalei Neighborhood Center & Ballpark
Off of Main Highway, just past the Post Office - accross the street
This market has had some recent turmoil regarding its continuance, but has settled down again into basically the same as it has been. It has taken over the previous popularity of the Sat. market in Kilauea and is well attended. Craft Vendors are included in addition to the regular farmers, many of which are organic farmers. Popular place to look for Organic Produce, so even though about 50%-75% of the farmers have Organic Produce - much of the people attending are looking for that exclusively. Occasional fish & baked goods are included by the regular produce vendors. Orchids in pots as well as cut flowers available here too. Nice locations, small yet good selection. Farmers' area is roped off until opening, allowing farmers to set up & buy from each other. The public is allowed open access to the craft vendors and access to the produce once market starts. If you're looking for organic lettuce, be there early & be careful once the rope goes down. Supply is sometimes slim and people sometimes run to the farmers who have it. Please observe the entrance/exit signs for parking in the field. The field is often used for soccer or seasonal craft fairs, which share the space with the farmers' market's parking. Farmers & vendors need approval & pay a weekly fee, space is limited.
Saturday
Kilauea
Kilauea Quality Farmers Association
11:30 am
Field by Post Office
Keneke Street (off Kilauea "Lighthouse" Road)
This market is not what it used to be since the Sat. Hanalei market started. Many of the farmers at this market set up here after finishing at the Hanalei market, so their supply has already been reduced and picked through. There are some farmers who don't go to both though. Open browsing is allowed before the selling start. Farmers do not need Sunshine Market permits to sell at this market, but do need to be a member of the orginization and pay a yearly membership fee, or arrange and obtain approval ahead of time and pay a per market fee. Field (and especially parking) can become muddy when the weather is or has been wet. It is still a North Shore community event though, so if you're in the area it's worth a visit. You'll see people walking, riding bikes and whatnot to and from the market. Also, if you like garage and yard sales, keep an eye out for signs on the way to and from the highway - people post them along the route to catch the crowd. Also to and from the highway are assorted houses with tables set up in front selling their own produce, flowers, lei, crystals, second hand things, and more.
Selected Public Kauai Farmer's Markets:
http://realkauai.com/FarmersMarkets/#Sunshine
Sunshine Markets (Farmer's Markets)
Wednesday
Kapaa
3:00 pm
Kapaa New Town Ball Park Parking Lot by Bypass Road
Kahau & Olehena
This is one of the larger and more well attended markets. Organic Produce occasionally available and fresh coconuts along with everything else.
Thursday
Kilauea
4:30 pm
Kilauea Neighborhood Center Ball Park / Gym Parking Lot
Keneke (off Kilauea (Lighthouse) Road)
Not large in the amount of farmers - but the most likely Sunshine Market to find Organic Produce. About 25%-75% of the farmers will have Organic Produce, depending on who's there at any given market. Open browsing allowed before selling start. Start of selling usually signified by a car honk and/or a yell, "Okay!" from the market organizer(s). You'll know because everyone starts to frantically stuff their bags and exchange money all of a sudden.
Aloha, Brad
http://realkauai.com/FarmersMarkets/#Private
Privately Run Farmer's Markets
Tuesday
Waipa (Hanalei)
Hawaiian Farmers of Hanalei (Waipa)
2:00 pm
Waipa Ahupuaa Field
Be there early with your running shoes! Consumers are not allowed in until the actual start of the allowed selling period. This means that people dash in as soon as the rope goes down. Not quite as much of a foot race as the Koloa Sunshine Market- but close. Good place to look for Organic Produce. About 50%-75% of the farmers can have Organic Produce, depending on who's there at any given market. Run by people who sell the flowers at the entrance, so no other flowers sold there. Farmers do not need Sunshine Market permits to sell at this market, and the market fees are paid by the farmers on a per market basis. Non-food items sold there occasionally as well, such as handmade jewelry made out of materials from nature (shells, seeds, etc.). Most beautiful setting for a farmer's market - worth checking out for the ambiance.
Saturday
Hanalei
9:30 am
Hanalei Neighborhood Center & Ballpark
Off of Main Highway, just past the Post Office - accross the street
This market has had some recent turmoil regarding its continuance, but has settled down again into basically the same as it has been. It has taken over the previous popularity of the Sat. market in Kilauea and is well attended. Craft Vendors are included in addition to the regular farmers, many of which are organic farmers. Popular place to look for Organic Produce, so even though about 50%-75% of the farmers have Organic Produce - much of the people attending are looking for that exclusively. Occasional fish & baked goods are included by the regular produce vendors. Orchids in pots as well as cut flowers available here too. Nice locations, small yet good selection. Farmers' area is roped off until opening, allowing farmers to set up & buy from each other. The public is allowed open access to the craft vendors and access to the produce once market starts. If you're looking for organic lettuce, be there early & be careful once the rope goes down. Supply is sometimes slim and people sometimes run to the farmers who have it. Please observe the entrance/exit signs for parking in the field. The field is often used for soccer or seasonal craft fairs, which share the space with the farmers' market's parking. Farmers & vendors need approval & pay a weekly fee, space is limited.
Saturday
Kilauea
Kilauea Quality Farmers Association
11:30 am
Field by Post Office
Keneke Street (off Kilauea "Lighthouse" Road)
This market is not what it used to be since the Sat. Hanalei market started. Many of the farmers at this market set up here after finishing at the Hanalei market, so their supply has already been reduced and picked through. There are some farmers who don't go to both though. Open browsing is allowed before the selling start. Farmers do not need Sunshine Market permits to sell at this market, but do need to be a member of the orginization and pay a yearly membership fee, or arrange and obtain approval ahead of time and pay a per market fee. Field (and especially parking) can become muddy when the weather is or has been wet. It is still a North Shore community event though, so if you're in the area it's worth a visit. You'll see people walking, riding bikes and whatnot to and from the market. Also, if you like garage and yard sales, keep an eye out for signs on the way to and from the highway - people post them along the route to catch the crowd. Also to and from the highway are assorted houses with tables set up in front selling their own produce, flowers, lei, crystals, second hand things, and more.
Selected Public Kauai Farmer's Markets:
http://realkauai.com/FarmersMarkets/#Sunshine
Sunshine Markets (Farmer's Markets)
Wednesday
Kapaa
3:00 pm
Kapaa New Town Ball Park Parking Lot by Bypass Road
Kahau & Olehena
This is one of the larger and more well attended markets. Organic Produce occasionally available and fresh coconuts along with everything else.
Thursday
Kilauea
4:30 pm
Kilauea Neighborhood Center Ball Park / Gym Parking Lot
Keneke (off Kilauea (Lighthouse) Road)
Not large in the amount of farmers - but the most likely Sunshine Market to find Organic Produce. About 25%-75% of the farmers will have Organic Produce, depending on who's there at any given market. Open browsing allowed before selling start. Start of selling usually signified by a car honk and/or a yell, "Okay!" from the market organizer(s). You'll know because everyone starts to frantically stuff their bags and exchange money all of a sudden.
Aloha, Brad
December 26, 2008
'Beautiful' Waikiki
http://kauainet.wiki.zoho.com/Taking-Waikiki.html
Was told by Ed Coll today that the above video was based on the Master's Thesis by Barry Nakamura, "The Story of Waikiki and the 'Reclamation' Project." Master's Thesis, History Department, University of Hawai`i at Manoa, 1979.
See also: "Navigation in the Information Age: An Exploration of the Potential Use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for Sustainability and Self-Determination in Hawai`i," by Cogswell and Schiøtz, 1996 at http://www.hawaii-nation.org/gis/contents.html
Aloha, Brad
Was told by Ed Coll today that the above video was based on the Master's Thesis by Barry Nakamura, "The Story of Waikiki and the 'Reclamation' Project." Master's Thesis, History Department, University of Hawai`i at Manoa, 1979.
See also: "Navigation in the Information Age: An Exploration of the Potential Use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for Sustainability and Self-Determination in Hawai`i," by Cogswell and Schiøtz, 1996 at http://www.hawaii-nation.org/gis/contents.html
Aloha, Brad
December 24, 2008
The Crash Course...with new Last Installments
Just watched the last two new installments. Good analysis:
You will learn about:
Intro (on this page, above)
Chapter 1: Three Beliefs (Time: 1:46)
Chapter 2: The Three "E"s (Time: 1:38)
Chapter 3: Exponential Growth UPDATED! - November 3 (Time: 6:20)
Chapter 4: Compounding is the Problem (Time: 3:06)
Chapter 5: Growth vs. Prosperity (Time: 3:40)
Chapter 6: What is Money? (Time: 5:55)
Chapter 7: Money Creation (Time: 4:19)
Chapter 8: The Fed - Money Creation (Time: 7:13)
Chapter 9: A Brief History of US Money (Time: 7:14)
Chapter 10: Inflation (Time: 11:48)
Chapter 11: How Much Is A Trillion? (Time: 3:28)
Chapter 12: Debt (Time: 12:32)
Chapter 13: A National Failure To Save (Time: 12:06)
Chapter 14: Assets & Demographics (Time: 13:41)
Chapter 15: Bubbles (Time: 14:10)
Chapter 16: Fuzzy Numbers (Time: 15:52)
Chapter 17: PART A: Peak Oil (Time: 17:52)
Chapter 17: PART B: Energy Budgeting (Time: 12:15)
Chapter 17: PART C: Energy And The Economy (Time: 7:05)
Chapter 18: Environmental Data (Time: 16:22)
Chapter 19: Future Shock (Time: 8:02)
Chapter 20: What Should I Do? NEW! - October 22 (Time: 19:48)
Aloha, Brad
You will learn about:
Intro (on this page, above)
Chapter 1: Three Beliefs (Time: 1:46)
Chapter 2: The Three "E"s (Time: 1:38)
Chapter 3: Exponential Growth UPDATED! - November 3 (Time: 6:20)
Chapter 4: Compounding is the Problem (Time: 3:06)
Chapter 5: Growth vs. Prosperity (Time: 3:40)
Chapter 6: What is Money? (Time: 5:55)
Chapter 7: Money Creation (Time: 4:19)
Chapter 8: The Fed - Money Creation (Time: 7:13)
Chapter 9: A Brief History of US Money (Time: 7:14)
Chapter 10: Inflation (Time: 11:48)
Chapter 11: How Much Is A Trillion? (Time: 3:28)
Chapter 12: Debt (Time: 12:32)
Chapter 13: A National Failure To Save (Time: 12:06)
Chapter 14: Assets & Demographics (Time: 13:41)
Chapter 15: Bubbles (Time: 14:10)
Chapter 16: Fuzzy Numbers (Time: 15:52)
Chapter 17: PART A: Peak Oil (Time: 17:52)
Chapter 17: PART B: Energy Budgeting (Time: 12:15)
Chapter 17: PART C: Energy And The Economy (Time: 7:05)
Chapter 18: Environmental Data (Time: 16:22)
Chapter 19: Future Shock (Time: 8:02)
Chapter 20: What Should I Do? NEW! - October 22 (Time: 19:48)
Aloha, Brad
FT: Nouriel Roubini on the Next 'Shoe to Drop'
Video: http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=972188398&fromSearch=n
FT Interview:
"Part 3, Dec. 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, expects further financial stress. 'A thousand if not more' hedge funds could go bust all at the same time. This means the selling of distressed assets could continue. Another source of stress is emerging market economies; there are about a dozen on the verge of a potential financial crisis, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela. Other skeletons could come out of the opaque financial system, similar to the Bernard Madoff scandal. The dollar is likely to weaken over the medium term. U.S. and global equities could see declines of another 15 to 20 percent in the next few months, and a bear market rally will fizzle out. Commodity prices could fall another 15 to 20 percent. Cash and cash-like instruments like safe short-term government treasuries are still the safest bet for the next few months."
Aloha, Brad
FT Interview:
"Part 3, Dec. 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, expects further financial stress. 'A thousand if not more' hedge funds could go bust all at the same time. This means the selling of distressed assets could continue. Another source of stress is emerging market economies; there are about a dozen on the verge of a potential financial crisis, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela. Other skeletons could come out of the opaque financial system, similar to the Bernard Madoff scandal. The dollar is likely to weaken over the medium term. U.S. and global equities could see declines of another 15 to 20 percent in the next few months, and a bear market rally will fizzle out. Commodity prices could fall another 15 to 20 percent. Cash and cash-like instruments like safe short-term government treasuries are still the safest bet for the next few months."
Aloha, Brad
Is This the 'Clean Coal' that Obama Speaks Of?
As reported by Kauai Museletter and DN!:
"Huge environmental disaster in Tennessee - Coal Ash spill"
"Friends,
There was a huge and terrible environmental disaster in Tennessee yesterday.
The Tennessee Valley Authority, better known as TVA, has a coal-burning power plant located near Harriman, Tennessee, along Interstate 40 between Knoxville and Nashville. The stuff that is left over after TVA burns their coal is called coal ash.
Coal ash contains mercury and dangerous heavy metals like lead and arsenic - materials found naturally in coal are concentrated in the ash.
TVA has a huge mountain of this coal waste material stored in a gigantic pile next to their Harriman (Kingston) power plant, alongside a tributary of the Tennessee River.
On Monday morning Dec. 22 around 1:00 am, the earthen retaining wall around this mountain of coal ash failed and approximately 500 million gallons of nasty black coal ash flowed into tributaries of the Tennessee River - the water supply for Chattanooga TN and millions of people living downstream in Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky.
This Tennessee TVA spill is over 40 times bigger than the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, if local news accounts are correct.
This is a huge environmental disaster of epic proportions.
To see an amazing aerial video of the spill - the big hunks and chunks in the river are mounds of coal ash: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGmVCABMRRQ
There is better aerial footage but you have to watch an Applebees commercial first - go to the link below, then scroll down to the "Most Popular" section and find the button that says "aerial footage" http://www.wbir.com/video/default.aspx?aid=74330
The local media are downplaying the spill, but the Nashville newspaper (The Tennessean) has a decent article, posted below.
When I first saw the 300 million gallon Martin County coal sludge spill in Kentucky in October 2000 I was outraged. I was sure that it would be a national news story, but it never was, because the coal companies and local law enforcement blocked the road leading to the spill and kept the media out. The national media was confused because they didn't know what "coal sludge" was. And ....the big national environmental groups didn't do enough to bring media attention to the Martin County disaster.
That’s not going to happen this time, because we have
1. You Tube
2. Bloggers
3. Digital cameras
4. You!
"Clean Coal" is The Big Corporate Lie. [A lie recently adopted by Obama.]
This horrific disaster in Tennessee can be the turning point in our nation's struggle to build a new network of clean modern renewable sources of energy, like wind and solar power - but we have to raise awareness of this disaster immediately. Thanks for reading."
Here is the Tennessean's coverage: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20081223/GREEN02/812230370/1001/RSS6001
Aloha, Brad
"Huge environmental disaster in Tennessee - Coal Ash spill"
"Friends,
There was a huge and terrible environmental disaster in Tennessee yesterday.
The Tennessee Valley Authority, better known as TVA, has a coal-burning power plant located near Harriman, Tennessee, along Interstate 40 between Knoxville and Nashville. The stuff that is left over after TVA burns their coal is called coal ash.
Coal ash contains mercury and dangerous heavy metals like lead and arsenic - materials found naturally in coal are concentrated in the ash.
TVA has a huge mountain of this coal waste material stored in a gigantic pile next to their Harriman (Kingston) power plant, alongside a tributary of the Tennessee River.
On Monday morning Dec. 22 around 1:00 am, the earthen retaining wall around this mountain of coal ash failed and approximately 500 million gallons of nasty black coal ash flowed into tributaries of the Tennessee River - the water supply for Chattanooga TN and millions of people living downstream in Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky.
This Tennessee TVA spill is over 40 times bigger than the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, if local news accounts are correct.
This is a huge environmental disaster of epic proportions.
To see an amazing aerial video of the spill - the big hunks and chunks in the river are mounds of coal ash: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGmVCABMRRQ
There is better aerial footage but you have to watch an Applebees commercial first - go to the link below, then scroll down to the "Most Popular" section and find the button that says "aerial footage" http://www.wbir.com/video/default.aspx?aid=74330
The local media are downplaying the spill, but the Nashville newspaper (The Tennessean) has a decent article, posted below.
When I first saw the 300 million gallon Martin County coal sludge spill in Kentucky in October 2000 I was outraged. I was sure that it would be a national news story, but it never was, because the coal companies and local law enforcement blocked the road leading to the spill and kept the media out. The national media was confused because they didn't know what "coal sludge" was. And ....the big national environmental groups didn't do enough to bring media attention to the Martin County disaster.
That’s not going to happen this time, because we have
1. You Tube
2. Bloggers
3. Digital cameras
4. You!
"Clean Coal" is The Big Corporate Lie. [A lie recently adopted by Obama.]
This horrific disaster in Tennessee can be the turning point in our nation's struggle to build a new network of clean modern renewable sources of energy, like wind and solar power - but we have to raise awareness of this disaster immediately. Thanks for reading."
Here is the Tennessean's coverage: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20081223/GREEN02/812230370/1001/RSS6001
Aloha, Brad
December 23, 2008
Utah Economics Student Rises Up...Prices
Katy Rose of the Breaking the Spell blog pointed out the following Democracy Now report:
"Posing as a Bidder, Utah Student Disrupts Government Auction of 150,000 Acres of Wilderness for Oil & Gas Drilling"
It's an interesting story. Here are a few quotes from the interview. First, how it started:
"TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: I started off, actually, at a final exam at the university and went straight from there down to the BLM office. And I saw some protesters walking back and forth outside, and I knew that I wanted to do more than that and that this kind of injustice demanded a higher level of disruption. And so, I just decided that I wanted to go inside and cause a bigger disruption.
And from there, I found it really easy to get inside and become a bidder, and went inside and was in the auction room. And once I was in there, I realized that any kind of speech or disruption or something like that wasn’t going to be very effective, but I saw pretty quickly that I could have a pretty major impact on the way this worked. And it just took me a little bit of time to build up the courage to do that, knowing what the consequences would be. And so, I started bidding and started driving up the prices for some of the oil companies. And throughout that time, I knew that I could be doing more and could really set aside some acres to really be protected. And so, then I started winning bids and disrupting it as clearly as I could."
And some of the response:
"TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: The response has really been overwhelming, and that’s been the most powerful part of the whole thing for me. Over the past two-and-a-half days, I’ve just got an overwhelming amount of support from all across the country and from different parts of the world. People have been standing up, inspired and encouraged to take action on their own, which is really powerful. And people have been coming out of the woodwork to support me. The former director of the BLM, Patrick Shea, has now volunteered to lead my legal team pro bono. And so, he’s on our side in a big way, and he’s a great asset to have.
This has really been emotional and hopeful for me to see that kind of support over the last couple of days, because I did feel like I was putting myself out on a limb there alone, and now, after thousands of supportive statements from people, I see that, you know, for all the problems that people can talk about in this country and for all the apathy and, you know, the eight years of oppression and the decades of eroding civil liberties, America is still very much the kind of place that when you stand up for what is right, you never stand alone. And that’s been really powerful for me to witness."
And the economics lesson in raising prices to come closer to covering external costs:
"AMY GOODMAN: Has the University of Utah said anything to you, officials there express support or otherwise?
TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: No, and, you know, I wouldn’t expect them to come out and make any official statement. Some of my professors, a lot of students have contacted me and expressed their support. The professors, especially, have been really supportive and have joined my team so far. And, you know, they kind of did their job beforehand. They kind of did their job in getting me ready for this and committing me to hold true to my values and in teaching me what was going on. In fact, the final exam that I took on Friday morning, one of the questions was about this oil sale and about, if only the oil companies were bidding on this land, are they actually going to be paying the real price for the production of oil? And, of course, the answer that the professor was expecting is no, they’re not, because there’s a lot of external costs that all of us have to pay for the production of oil that aren’t included in those. So they did their part ahead of time in putting me where I needed to be."
Ha ha ha ha,
Aloha, Brad
"Posing as a Bidder, Utah Student Disrupts Government Auction of 150,000 Acres of Wilderness for Oil & Gas Drilling"
It's an interesting story. Here are a few quotes from the interview. First, how it started:
"TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: I started off, actually, at a final exam at the university and went straight from there down to the BLM office. And I saw some protesters walking back and forth outside, and I knew that I wanted to do more than that and that this kind of injustice demanded a higher level of disruption. And so, I just decided that I wanted to go inside and cause a bigger disruption.
And from there, I found it really easy to get inside and become a bidder, and went inside and was in the auction room. And once I was in there, I realized that any kind of speech or disruption or something like that wasn’t going to be very effective, but I saw pretty quickly that I could have a pretty major impact on the way this worked. And it just took me a little bit of time to build up the courage to do that, knowing what the consequences would be. And so, I started bidding and started driving up the prices for some of the oil companies. And throughout that time, I knew that I could be doing more and could really set aside some acres to really be protected. And so, then I started winning bids and disrupting it as clearly as I could."
And some of the response:
"TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: The response has really been overwhelming, and that’s been the most powerful part of the whole thing for me. Over the past two-and-a-half days, I’ve just got an overwhelming amount of support from all across the country and from different parts of the world. People have been standing up, inspired and encouraged to take action on their own, which is really powerful. And people have been coming out of the woodwork to support me. The former director of the BLM, Patrick Shea, has now volunteered to lead my legal team pro bono. And so, he’s on our side in a big way, and he’s a great asset to have.
This has really been emotional and hopeful for me to see that kind of support over the last couple of days, because I did feel like I was putting myself out on a limb there alone, and now, after thousands of supportive statements from people, I see that, you know, for all the problems that people can talk about in this country and for all the apathy and, you know, the eight years of oppression and the decades of eroding civil liberties, America is still very much the kind of place that when you stand up for what is right, you never stand alone. And that’s been really powerful for me to witness."
And the economics lesson in raising prices to come closer to covering external costs:
"AMY GOODMAN: Has the University of Utah said anything to you, officials there express support or otherwise?
TIM DeCHRISTOPHER: No, and, you know, I wouldn’t expect them to come out and make any official statement. Some of my professors, a lot of students have contacted me and expressed their support. The professors, especially, have been really supportive and have joined my team so far. And, you know, they kind of did their job beforehand. They kind of did their job in getting me ready for this and committing me to hold true to my values and in teaching me what was going on. In fact, the final exam that I took on Friday morning, one of the questions was about this oil sale and about, if only the oil companies were bidding on this land, are they actually going to be paying the real price for the production of oil? And, of course, the answer that the professor was expecting is no, they’re not, because there’s a lot of external costs that all of us have to pay for the production of oil that aren’t included in those. So they did their part ahead of time in putting me where I needed to be."
Ha ha ha ha,
Aloha, Brad
December 22, 2008
Protection Against The Kauai Honeybee Killer
Protection Against The Kauai Honeybee Killer
Kauai beekeepers ask for your help in protecting our island against the varroa mite, a deadly honeybee parasite. The mite is established on Oahu, and was recently discovered on the Big Island. So far no infestations have been found on Kauai, but invasive species have a knack for spreading.
Most people don’t realize that the varroa mite is deadly to wild bees. Once established, the mite could kill off the main pollinators of our backyard gardens and fruit trees, not to mention economically important commercial crops. Such a kill-off means the end of abundant avocado, citrus, lychee, guava, palm and other fruit, as well as many vegetables and flowers. Kauai’s beekeeper-managed colonies may survive, but there are only enough managed hives on the island to pollinate a tiny fraction of our flowering plants.
Imagine a Garden Island where all the flowers drop to the ground unpollinated, and die without setting fruit.
Please help spread the word about varroa mite awareness to your neighbors, and if you notice a wild bee colony or swarm, contact your local beekeeper or Steelgrass Farm at 821-1857, email info@steelgrass.org, so the bees can be inspected to make sure they are mite-free.
Emily Lydgate and Will Lydgate
Steelgrass Farm
Kauai beekeepers ask for your help in protecting our island against the varroa mite, a deadly honeybee parasite. The mite is established on Oahu, and was recently discovered on the Big Island. So far no infestations have been found on Kauai, but invasive species have a knack for spreading.
Most people don’t realize that the varroa mite is deadly to wild bees. Once established, the mite could kill off the main pollinators of our backyard gardens and fruit trees, not to mention economically important commercial crops. Such a kill-off means the end of abundant avocado, citrus, lychee, guava, palm and other fruit, as well as many vegetables and flowers. Kauai’s beekeeper-managed colonies may survive, but there are only enough managed hives on the island to pollinate a tiny fraction of our flowering plants.
Imagine a Garden Island where all the flowers drop to the ground unpollinated, and die without setting fruit.
Please help spread the word about varroa mite awareness to your neighbors, and if you notice a wild bee colony or swarm, contact your local beekeeper or Steelgrass Farm at 821-1857, email info@steelgrass.org, so the bees can be inspected to make sure they are mite-free.
Emily Lydgate and Will Lydgate
Steelgrass Farm
Aloha, Brad
Oil: No Reason to Rally
Video: No Reason for Oil to Rally
Oil Deepens Losses Below $40, Eyes on Economy
By: Reuters 22 Dec 2008
"Oil prices extended their sharp fall to drop further below $40 a barrel on Tuesday, weakened anew by growing signs of deteriorating world oil demand.
Final third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data due later in the day is likely to underscore the ailing state of the world economy as a steady series of stimulus measures and policy moves -- including China's fifth interest rate cut -- fail to halt a slide towards the worst recession in decades.
U.S. crude for February delivery fell 49 cents to $39.42 a barrel after diving 6 percent on Monday, with volume particularly thin as traders seek to close out the worst-ever year for oil futures, which are now down 57 percent from January...
Deepening losses for U.S. stocks and the most dramatic decline ever in Japanese exports heightened anxiety on Monday about the condition of the world economy; signs that oil demand is likely to contract for the first time in a quarter century has already knocked oil prices over $100 off their July peaks."
How low can we go, watch the video above,
Aloha, Brad
Oil Deepens Losses Below $40, Eyes on Economy
By: Reuters 22 Dec 2008
"Oil prices extended their sharp fall to drop further below $40 a barrel on Tuesday, weakened anew by growing signs of deteriorating world oil demand.
Final third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data due later in the day is likely to underscore the ailing state of the world economy as a steady series of stimulus measures and policy moves -- including China's fifth interest rate cut -- fail to halt a slide towards the worst recession in decades.
U.S. crude for February delivery fell 49 cents to $39.42 a barrel after diving 6 percent on Monday, with volume particularly thin as traders seek to close out the worst-ever year for oil futures, which are now down 57 percent from January...
Deepening losses for U.S. stocks and the most dramatic decline ever in Japanese exports heightened anxiety on Monday about the condition of the world economy; signs that oil demand is likely to contract for the first time in a quarter century has already knocked oil prices over $100 off their July peaks."
How low can we go, watch the video above,
Aloha, Brad
December 21, 2008
AAA Forecast for Christmas Holiday Travel 2008
"AAA Forecasts Decline in Christmas Holiday Travel;
Year-to-year decline follows trend seen throughout 2008"
By: Business Wire 17 Dec 2008
AURORA, Ill., Dec 17, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- "AAA Chicago projects a slight decline in the number of Americans traveling during the Christmas holiday period. Nearly 63.9 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Christmas holiday travel period, a decrease of 1.4 million travelers (2.1 percent) from last year's total of 65.3 million. This is the first decline in Christmas holiday travelers since 2002. AAA projected year-to-year decreases in the number of travelers for all five of the major travel holidays this year (Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas).
"Without question, the economic downturn of 2008 eroded the discretionary income many Americans would have spent on travel and, for some, altered their travel plans throughout the year," said AAA Chicago's regional president, Brad Roeber.
"However, those traveling this holiday season can take advantage of declining hotel rates and fuel prices more than a dollar per gallon less than a year ago." More than 52.4 million Americans (82 percent of all holiday travelers) intend to travel by automobile, a 1.2 percent decrease from the 53 million people who drove last year. Motorists across the country, on average, can expect to see gasoline prices about $1.30 per gallon less than last year and 50 cents less than a month ago...
Approximately 8.1 million (13 percent of holiday travelers) expect to travel by airplane, an 8.5 percent decline from the 8.9 million travelers who flew last year. More than 3.33 million Americans plan to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation. That is an increase of 0.7 percent from a year ago...
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index (LTI), which is based on available rates this holiday, Americans can expect lower hotel rates and higher car rental rates throughout the holiday season. However, travelers should expect different trends in airfares depending upon the week of travel.
For Americans traveling during the week of Christmas, rates for AAA Three Diamond hotels are down an average of three percent compared to last year. On average, travelers renting a vehicle during the week of Christmas will pay two percent more than a year ago for the same period. Air passengers, however, can expect some relief in airfares this Christmas with prices nine percent less than last year.
Those planning to travel the week of New Year's will welcome a significant decline in hotel costs with rates for AAA Three Diamond hotels 16 percent less than a year ago. Car rentals rates are eight percent higher than last year for the same period. Americans traveling by air will pay an average of three percent more for airfares than a year ago.
AAA advises air passengers to check with their airline or travel counselor about additional fees before booking a trip. Most airlines continue to charge fees for checked baggage and other previously complimentary services like beverages and snacks.
Car rental rates vary from location to location, so some cities in AAA's LTI show significant increases when compared to last year, while others show significant decreases. AAA's index for car rentals is based on the average lowest intermediate size car daily rate in 20 U.S. airport locations. The rates do not include sales tax, insurance and other miscellaneous charges.
The Southeast is expected to produce the largest number of automobile travelers this Christmas holiday period with 14.1 million, followed by the West with 12.9 million; Midwest, 10.2 million; the Great Lakes, 8.2 million; and Northeast, 7 million.
The greatest number of air travelers will also originate in the Southeast with 2.5 million, followed by the West with 2.3 million; Northeast, 1.6 million; Midwest, 920,000; and the Great Lakes, 810,000.
Research for Christmas holiday travel projections are derived from the Travel Industry Association's (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast Model. The model was developed based on consumer travel intentions and TIA's quarterly travel forecast data...
Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs (including fuel prices) are also incorporated into the model.
Analysis of the data and the forecasts are produced by the Travel Industry Association, which conducts special research for AAA."
News you can use,
Aloha, Brad
Year-to-year decline follows trend seen throughout 2008"
By: Business Wire 17 Dec 2008
AURORA, Ill., Dec 17, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- "AAA Chicago projects a slight decline in the number of Americans traveling during the Christmas holiday period. Nearly 63.9 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Christmas holiday travel period, a decrease of 1.4 million travelers (2.1 percent) from last year's total of 65.3 million. This is the first decline in Christmas holiday travelers since 2002. AAA projected year-to-year decreases in the number of travelers for all five of the major travel holidays this year (Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas).
"Without question, the economic downturn of 2008 eroded the discretionary income many Americans would have spent on travel and, for some, altered their travel plans throughout the year," said AAA Chicago's regional president, Brad Roeber.
"However, those traveling this holiday season can take advantage of declining hotel rates and fuel prices more than a dollar per gallon less than a year ago." More than 52.4 million Americans (82 percent of all holiday travelers) intend to travel by automobile, a 1.2 percent decrease from the 53 million people who drove last year. Motorists across the country, on average, can expect to see gasoline prices about $1.30 per gallon less than last year and 50 cents less than a month ago...
Approximately 8.1 million (13 percent of holiday travelers) expect to travel by airplane, an 8.5 percent decline from the 8.9 million travelers who flew last year. More than 3.33 million Americans plan to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation. That is an increase of 0.7 percent from a year ago...
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index (LTI), which is based on available rates this holiday, Americans can expect lower hotel rates and higher car rental rates throughout the holiday season. However, travelers should expect different trends in airfares depending upon the week of travel.
For Americans traveling during the week of Christmas, rates for AAA Three Diamond hotels are down an average of three percent compared to last year. On average, travelers renting a vehicle during the week of Christmas will pay two percent more than a year ago for the same period. Air passengers, however, can expect some relief in airfares this Christmas with prices nine percent less than last year.
Those planning to travel the week of New Year's will welcome a significant decline in hotel costs with rates for AAA Three Diamond hotels 16 percent less than a year ago. Car rentals rates are eight percent higher than last year for the same period. Americans traveling by air will pay an average of three percent more for airfares than a year ago.
AAA advises air passengers to check with their airline or travel counselor about additional fees before booking a trip. Most airlines continue to charge fees for checked baggage and other previously complimentary services like beverages and snacks.
Car rental rates vary from location to location, so some cities in AAA's LTI show significant increases when compared to last year, while others show significant decreases. AAA's index for car rentals is based on the average lowest intermediate size car daily rate in 20 U.S. airport locations. The rates do not include sales tax, insurance and other miscellaneous charges.
The Southeast is expected to produce the largest number of automobile travelers this Christmas holiday period with 14.1 million, followed by the West with 12.9 million; Midwest, 10.2 million; the Great Lakes, 8.2 million; and Northeast, 7 million.
The greatest number of air travelers will also originate in the Southeast with 2.5 million, followed by the West with 2.3 million; Northeast, 1.6 million; Midwest, 920,000; and the Great Lakes, 810,000.
Research for Christmas holiday travel projections are derived from the Travel Industry Association's (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast Model. The model was developed based on consumer travel intentions and TIA's quarterly travel forecast data...
Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs (including fuel prices) are also incorporated into the model.
Analysis of the data and the forecasts are produced by the Travel Industry Association, which conducts special research for AAA."
News you can use,
Aloha, Brad
December 20, 2008
Nationwide Hotel RevPAR Forecast for 2009
"PKF-HR is forecasting that the nation’s hotels will not experience a year-over-year quarterly increase in RevPAR until the second quarter of 2010."
PKF forecasts 7.8 percent RevPAR decline in 2009
H&MM Week In Review Dec 18, 2008
Atlanta—December 9, 2008 – "U.S. hotels have entered the initial stages of one of the deepest and longest recessions in the history of the domestic lodging industry according to a new report issued today by PKF Hospitality Research. The 7.8 percent drop in RevPAR that the hospitality research firm is now forecasting for 2009 will be the fifth largest annual decline in this important measure since 1930. Further, PKF-HR is forecasting that the nation’s hotels will not experience a year-over-year quarterly increase in RevPAR until the second quarter of 2010. The projected seven consecutive quarters of declining RevPAR, beginning with the just reported third-quarter decline of 1.1 percent, according to data from Smith Travel Research (STR), marks the longest stretch of falling revenues endured by U.S. hotels since STR began tracking performance data in the late 1980s.
PKF-HR recently updated its forecast based on STR lodging performance data through September of 2008 and the November release of Moody’s Economy.com economic forecast for the nation. The forecast results are presented in the fourth quarter 2008 edition of Hotel HorizonsSM, a quarterly series of reports containing five-year forecasts of performance for the U.S. lodging industry and 50 major markets across the country.
Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR, noted that, “the speed and severity of the downturns in employment and income continue to accelerate. Given the strong correlation between these two economic measures and demand for lodging accommodations, we are forecasting 2.5 percent fewer occupied rooms in 2009. This follows an estimated 1.0 percent decline in demand for year-end 2008.”
The expected 2.5 percent fall off in demand, combined with a 2.9 percent increase in supply, will result in a 2009 year-end occupancy level of 57.6 percent. This represents a 5.3 percent decline in occupancy, and is 5.1 percentage points below the long-term average occupancy level for U.S. hotels tracked by STR of 62.7 percent.
“The combination of above average net increases of supply occurring simultaneously with dramatic declines in demand is something we have not seen in recent industry recessions. This is what makes this downturn so severe,” Woodworth said.
Discounting Impacts Profits
Through the first three quarters of 2008, U.S. hoteliers were holding the line against discounting despite declining levels of demand. In fact, room rates were up 3.7 percent through the first nine months of the year, a pace greater than the long-term average for ADR growth. “The severity of four consecutive down quarters of occupancy was too much for hotel operators to bear,” Woodworth observed. “Starting in October 2008, we began to observe year-over-year declines in ADR. Given the expected deterioration of market conditions, we are forecasting a 2.7 percent decline in rates for 2009. This is just shy of the combined 2.9 percent decline in ADR suffered during the two-year period 2001 and 2002.”
The ability to drive revenue by increasing room rates creates the most profitable environment for hotels. Therefore, the 2.7 percent fall in room rates leads to the projection of a 14.0 percent decline in net operating income (NOI) for the average U.S. hotel from 2008 to 2009. NOI is defined as income before deductions for capital reserves, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
“Looking back at previous industry recessions, we know that hotel managers will respond and cut costs,” Woodworth said. “Fewer occupied rooms will reduce variable expenses such as payroll and operating supplies. In addition, management will eliminate some fixed overhead costs and non-essential guest services and amenities. Recent declines in energy prices will help this cost reduction effort.” PKF-HR is forecasting unit-level operating expenses to decline by 4.5 percent in 2009, but this falls short of the 7.3 percent loss in revenue.
Fortunately for U.S. hotel owners and lenders, the vast majority of properties are fiscally fit entering the current downturn. Unit-level profit margins are estimated to be 29.4 percent in 2008, well above the 26.1 percent long-term average. Interest coverage ratios for the hotels in PKF-HR’s Trends in the Hotel Industry exceed 1.7. While PKF-HR does not believe the current forecast will generate abundant hotel foreclosures and bankruptcies, operating conditions are at vulnerable levels and further deterioration could impact the solvency of U.S. hotels.
“In view of the significant volatility in the domestic and global economy, a negative bias on this outlook is appropriate,” noted Jack Corgel, the Robert C.Baker Professor of Real Estate at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University and senior advisor to PKF-HR.
Most Markets Will Suffer
“In keeping with our long-standing view that the lodging industry is a street corner business, we focused heavily on the outlook for the major hotel markets in the nation,” Woodworth said. “We have developed 100 unique econometric forecasting models that project the performance of both the upper- and lower-tier properties in 50 of the largest cities in the country.”
Except for New Orleans, all of the 50 markets analyzed by PKF-HR are forecast to suffer a decline in RevPAR in 2009. The main culprit for the decline in RevPAR is the forecast fall-off in demand. In 40 of the 50 markets, PKF-HR is forecasting a lower number of rooms to be occupied in 2009 as compared to 2008. In 18 of these markets, an above average increase in the supply of hotel rooms exacerbates the competitiveness of the marketplace.
“When analyzing the declines in RevPAR forecast for the nation’s major markets, it certainly appears that warm-weather, leisure-oriented, and seasonal markets are most vulnerable in 2009,” Woodworth observed. Five of the top seven forecast city declines in RevPAR are expected to occur within the State of Florida. The other two markets in the top seven are Phoenix and Oahu.
“Further reductions in airline capacity amplify the negative operating environment in these markets brought on by weak economic conditions.” Previous research by PKF-HR found that a 1.0 percent increase/decrease in airline capacity yields a 0.39 percent increase/decrease in lodging demand at the national level.
Beyond 2009
Come 2010, the relevant economic indicators are forecast to begin to drive lodging demand upward. This will happen simultaneously with diminished levels of new supply, thus resulting in gains in occupancy and, eventually, pricing power. 'Given all the lodging industry will have to deal with in 2009, it is hard to look beyond a 12-month window. However, a glance at 2010 does reveal the beginning of an upward trend,' Woodworth concluded."
(To purchase Hotel HorizonsSM reports for the United States, or one of 50 individual markets, please visit the firm’s online store at www.pkfc.com/hotelhorizons, or call (866) 842-8754.)
My forecast based on recent news about Alt. A's and Option ARM's is that RevPAR will not improve until 2011, if even then, except in cases of effective unique individual hotel marketing.
Aloha, Brad
PKF forecasts 7.8 percent RevPAR decline in 2009
H&MM Week In Review Dec 18, 2008
Atlanta—December 9, 2008 – "U.S. hotels have entered the initial stages of one of the deepest and longest recessions in the history of the domestic lodging industry according to a new report issued today by PKF Hospitality Research. The 7.8 percent drop in RevPAR that the hospitality research firm is now forecasting for 2009 will be the fifth largest annual decline in this important measure since 1930. Further, PKF-HR is forecasting that the nation’s hotels will not experience a year-over-year quarterly increase in RevPAR until the second quarter of 2010. The projected seven consecutive quarters of declining RevPAR, beginning with the just reported third-quarter decline of 1.1 percent, according to data from Smith Travel Research (STR), marks the longest stretch of falling revenues endured by U.S. hotels since STR began tracking performance data in the late 1980s.
PKF-HR recently updated its forecast based on STR lodging performance data through September of 2008 and the November release of Moody’s Economy.com economic forecast for the nation. The forecast results are presented in the fourth quarter 2008 edition of Hotel HorizonsSM, a quarterly series of reports containing five-year forecasts of performance for the U.S. lodging industry and 50 major markets across the country.
Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR, noted that, “the speed and severity of the downturns in employment and income continue to accelerate. Given the strong correlation between these two economic measures and demand for lodging accommodations, we are forecasting 2.5 percent fewer occupied rooms in 2009. This follows an estimated 1.0 percent decline in demand for year-end 2008.”
The expected 2.5 percent fall off in demand, combined with a 2.9 percent increase in supply, will result in a 2009 year-end occupancy level of 57.6 percent. This represents a 5.3 percent decline in occupancy, and is 5.1 percentage points below the long-term average occupancy level for U.S. hotels tracked by STR of 62.7 percent.
“The combination of above average net increases of supply occurring simultaneously with dramatic declines in demand is something we have not seen in recent industry recessions. This is what makes this downturn so severe,” Woodworth said.
Discounting Impacts Profits
Through the first three quarters of 2008, U.S. hoteliers were holding the line against discounting despite declining levels of demand. In fact, room rates were up 3.7 percent through the first nine months of the year, a pace greater than the long-term average for ADR growth. “The severity of four consecutive down quarters of occupancy was too much for hotel operators to bear,” Woodworth observed. “Starting in October 2008, we began to observe year-over-year declines in ADR. Given the expected deterioration of market conditions, we are forecasting a 2.7 percent decline in rates for 2009. This is just shy of the combined 2.9 percent decline in ADR suffered during the two-year period 2001 and 2002.”
The ability to drive revenue by increasing room rates creates the most profitable environment for hotels. Therefore, the 2.7 percent fall in room rates leads to the projection of a 14.0 percent decline in net operating income (NOI) for the average U.S. hotel from 2008 to 2009. NOI is defined as income before deductions for capital reserves, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
“Looking back at previous industry recessions, we know that hotel managers will respond and cut costs,” Woodworth said. “Fewer occupied rooms will reduce variable expenses such as payroll and operating supplies. In addition, management will eliminate some fixed overhead costs and non-essential guest services and amenities. Recent declines in energy prices will help this cost reduction effort.” PKF-HR is forecasting unit-level operating expenses to decline by 4.5 percent in 2009, but this falls short of the 7.3 percent loss in revenue.
Fortunately for U.S. hotel owners and lenders, the vast majority of properties are fiscally fit entering the current downturn. Unit-level profit margins are estimated to be 29.4 percent in 2008, well above the 26.1 percent long-term average. Interest coverage ratios for the hotels in PKF-HR’s Trends in the Hotel Industry exceed 1.7. While PKF-HR does not believe the current forecast will generate abundant hotel foreclosures and bankruptcies, operating conditions are at vulnerable levels and further deterioration could impact the solvency of U.S. hotels.
“In view of the significant volatility in the domestic and global economy, a negative bias on this outlook is appropriate,” noted Jack Corgel, the Robert C.Baker Professor of Real Estate at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University and senior advisor to PKF-HR.
Most Markets Will Suffer
“In keeping with our long-standing view that the lodging industry is a street corner business, we focused heavily on the outlook for the major hotel markets in the nation,” Woodworth said. “We have developed 100 unique econometric forecasting models that project the performance of both the upper- and lower-tier properties in 50 of the largest cities in the country.”
Except for New Orleans, all of the 50 markets analyzed by PKF-HR are forecast to suffer a decline in RevPAR in 2009. The main culprit for the decline in RevPAR is the forecast fall-off in demand. In 40 of the 50 markets, PKF-HR is forecasting a lower number of rooms to be occupied in 2009 as compared to 2008. In 18 of these markets, an above average increase in the supply of hotel rooms exacerbates the competitiveness of the marketplace.
“When analyzing the declines in RevPAR forecast for the nation’s major markets, it certainly appears that warm-weather, leisure-oriented, and seasonal markets are most vulnerable in 2009,” Woodworth observed. Five of the top seven forecast city declines in RevPAR are expected to occur within the State of Florida. The other two markets in the top seven are Phoenix and Oahu.
“Further reductions in airline capacity amplify the negative operating environment in these markets brought on by weak economic conditions.” Previous research by PKF-HR found that a 1.0 percent increase/decrease in airline capacity yields a 0.39 percent increase/decrease in lodging demand at the national level.
Beyond 2009
Come 2010, the relevant economic indicators are forecast to begin to drive lodging demand upward. This will happen simultaneously with diminished levels of new supply, thus resulting in gains in occupancy and, eventually, pricing power. 'Given all the lodging industry will have to deal with in 2009, it is hard to look beyond a 12-month window. However, a glance at 2010 does reveal the beginning of an upward trend,' Woodworth concluded."
(To purchase Hotel HorizonsSM reports for the United States, or one of 50 individual markets, please visit the firm’s online store at www.pkfc.com/hotelhorizons, or call (866) 842-8754.)
My forecast based on recent news about Alt. A's and Option ARM's is that RevPAR will not improve until 2011, if even then, except in cases of effective unique individual hotel marketing.
Aloha, Brad
Isle tourism drop nears Great Depression levels?
"Isle ‘severely impacted’ by economic conditions"
The Maui News and The Associated Press December 20, 2008
"The nation's ongoing economic downturn continued to undercut visitor arrivals to Maui island by about 20 percent and by a third or more on Molokai and Lanai, according to November visitor statistics released Friday by the state Department of Business,
Economic Development & Tourism.
Compared with November 2007, visitor arrivals for the month were down 20.1 percent on Maui, 38.1 percent on Molokai and 33.2 percent on Lanai, the department reported.
Statewide, visitor arrivals fell 15.9 percent. Oahu's numbers went down 15.7 percent while Kauai and the Big Island were seeing 27.2 percent and 20 percent fewer visitors, respectively...
On the positive side for the industry, Japan Airlines and other Japanese carriers are expected to lower the fuel surcharges on tickets they sell for flights between Japan and Hawaii starting in January and April. This should dramatically cut costs for Japanese tourists, encouraging them to visit the islands.
The Japanese yen has also soared against the dollar, making a Hawaii vacation more affordable for many in Japan."--FULL STORY>>
"Isle tourism drop nears Great Depression levels;
The industry heads for its worst annual plunge in 75 years"
By Allison Schaefers The Honolulu Star-Bulletin December 20, 2008
"A 15.9 percent decline in visitor arrivals in November plunged the year-to-date performance for the state's visitor industry to its worst recorded 11-month level and may have put it on track to experience its worst year, in terms of percentage decline, since the Great Depression.
Hawaii's lagging visitor industry, which has seen its visitor count fall by 10.2 percent through November, may fall below 2001 levels for the year, said state Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert.
The state hasn't experienced such a major 11-month drop in arrivals since 2001, when the count through November was off by 8.7 percent, Wienert said. The year-to-date plunge in arrivals for 2008 already has surpassed the 9.3 percent annual drop of 2001, she said.
"We had estimated that we'd be off by 10 percent for the year, but right now it looks like it's going to be a little more," Wienert said.
During the Great Depression, Hawaii's annual visitor counts dropped by 15.9 percent in 1930, 15.4 percent in 1931 and 34.3 percent in 1932, she said. Eleven-month records were not available for those time periods."--FULL STORY>>
If this is what a Depression is like, it ain't so bad, yet,
Aloha, Brad
The Maui News and The Associated Press December 20, 2008
"The nation's ongoing economic downturn continued to undercut visitor arrivals to Maui island by about 20 percent and by a third or more on Molokai and Lanai, according to November visitor statistics released Friday by the state Department of Business,
Economic Development & Tourism.
Compared with November 2007, visitor arrivals for the month were down 20.1 percent on Maui, 38.1 percent on Molokai and 33.2 percent on Lanai, the department reported.
Statewide, visitor arrivals fell 15.9 percent. Oahu's numbers went down 15.7 percent while Kauai and the Big Island were seeing 27.2 percent and 20 percent fewer visitors, respectively...
On the positive side for the industry, Japan Airlines and other Japanese carriers are expected to lower the fuel surcharges on tickets they sell for flights between Japan and Hawaii starting in January and April. This should dramatically cut costs for Japanese tourists, encouraging them to visit the islands.
The Japanese yen has also soared against the dollar, making a Hawaii vacation more affordable for many in Japan."--FULL STORY>>
"Isle tourism drop nears Great Depression levels;
The industry heads for its worst annual plunge in 75 years"
By Allison Schaefers The Honolulu Star-Bulletin December 20, 2008
"A 15.9 percent decline in visitor arrivals in November plunged the year-to-date performance for the state's visitor industry to its worst recorded 11-month level and may have put it on track to experience its worst year, in terms of percentage decline, since the Great Depression.
Hawaii's lagging visitor industry, which has seen its visitor count fall by 10.2 percent through November, may fall below 2001 levels for the year, said state Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert.
The state hasn't experienced such a major 11-month drop in arrivals since 2001, when the count through November was off by 8.7 percent, Wienert said. The year-to-date plunge in arrivals for 2008 already has surpassed the 9.3 percent annual drop of 2001, she said.
"We had estimated that we'd be off by 10 percent for the year, but right now it looks like it's going to be a little more," Wienert said.
During the Great Depression, Hawaii's annual visitor counts dropped by 15.9 percent in 1930, 15.4 percent in 1931 and 34.3 percent in 1932, she said. Eleven-month records were not available for those time periods."--FULL STORY>>
If this is what a Depression is like, it ain't so bad, yet,
Aloha, Brad
December 19, 2008
Second wave of mortgage defaults coming: Alt-A's & Option ARM's
On a similar note, from Fortune Magazine:
Click on: 8 really, really scary predictions
Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers on what they have to say about the coming year. [1st of 8, Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economics professor who saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming].
Also, in case you missed the story, a senior Citigroup analyst predicts dire economic, social, and political events in 2009-2010.
Aloha, Brad
December 18, 2008
Great Online Seasonal Tourism Marketing from Taranaki, NZ
With a lot less resources than any of the islands of Hawaii, in more than a decade, I have never seen any online seasonal marketing from any of the Hawaiian Islands as good as the following. It showed up in an e-newsletter that I get:
"New Plymouth was recently voted as the most desirable place to live in New Zealand and they have added this seasonal greeting to our newsletter, which is worth a look"
Click on: http://www.taranaki.info/merrychristmas/
and their website: http://www.taranaki.info/
Aloha, Brad
"New Plymouth was recently voted as the most desirable place to live in New Zealand and they have added this seasonal greeting to our newsletter, which is worth a look"
Click on: http://www.taranaki.info/merrychristmas/
and their website: http://www.taranaki.info/
Aloha, Brad
Oil Falls, Dollar Falls, OPEC Does only Half of What they Say
American's appear to be testing the whole system by not buying anything more than they need. Wonder how long this can last...
Quoting from, "Oil Rises Above $40, But Remains Near 4-Year Low" by Reuters 18 Dec 2008
"Oil reversed earlier losses, rising above $40 a barrel on Thursday, but remained near its lowest in more than four years, as rising U.S. crude inventories and further evidence of slowing demand trumped OPEC's biggest ever production cut...
Top forecasters are now predicting the first decline in world energy use since 1983...
Prices for January delivery, which expires on Friday, rose after falling to $39.19 earlier in the session, the lowest since July 2004, and following an 8-percent overnight drop...
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, eager to build a floor under dipping prices, announced on Wednesday it would cut 2.2 million barrels daily of output starting Jan. 1, slightly more than expected...
According to independent observers cited in OPEC's monthly report on Tuesday, the group's compliance in November to existing cuts was only just over 50 percent...
'Prices have to head lower, now that we are through $40. As long as demand continues to weaken, prices will weaken too,' Emori added...
Americans are likely to travel less for the Christmas holiday period for the first time since 2002, travel and auto group AAA said...
The [Fed rate] cut has sent the U.S. dollar tumbling against major currencies, hitting the weakest in more than 13 years against the yen on Wednesday."
Regarding American's testing the whole system by not buying anything they don't need, I'm reminded of the following video that Larry Geller commented on today. I think Larry has a point, and it's something that's not well understood by the economists:
Aloha, Brad
Quoting from, "Oil Rises Above $40, But Remains Near 4-Year Low" by Reuters 18 Dec 2008
"Oil reversed earlier losses, rising above $40 a barrel on Thursday, but remained near its lowest in more than four years, as rising U.S. crude inventories and further evidence of slowing demand trumped OPEC's biggest ever production cut...
Top forecasters are now predicting the first decline in world energy use since 1983...
Prices for January delivery, which expires on Friday, rose after falling to $39.19 earlier in the session, the lowest since July 2004, and following an 8-percent overnight drop...
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, eager to build a floor under dipping prices, announced on Wednesday it would cut 2.2 million barrels daily of output starting Jan. 1, slightly more than expected...
According to independent observers cited in OPEC's monthly report on Tuesday, the group's compliance in November to existing cuts was only just over 50 percent...
'Prices have to head lower, now that we are through $40. As long as demand continues to weaken, prices will weaken too,' Emori added...
Americans are likely to travel less for the Christmas holiday period for the first time since 2002, travel and auto group AAA said...
The [Fed rate] cut has sent the U.S. dollar tumbling against major currencies, hitting the weakest in more than 13 years against the yen on Wednesday."
Regarding American's testing the whole system by not buying anything they don't need, I'm reminded of the following video that Larry Geller commented on today. I think Larry has a point, and it's something that's not well understood by the economists:
Aloha, Brad
December 17, 2008
Greek Riots: Picture Collage and Some Background
Collage: The Big Picture: 2008 Greek Riots
Who Will Stop the Greece Fires?
December 16, 2008 From theTrumpet.com
How the Greek riots were planned in advance. By Richard Palmer
"Greece is in trouble. Thousands of rioters rampaged through Athens. Angry youths attacked the Athens court house with petrol bombs. Broken glass and burned-out wreckage lay in the streets.
But the riots of the past week and a half are also a sign of a far greater upheaval that is threatening to engulf much of Europe.
Athens isn’t the only Greek city to be hit. Roughly half of the country’s workforce is on strike. One resident of Thessaloniki described the city as “a war zone.” Protesters wounded 12 police officers in 10 different cities in one night.
The rioting started December 6 after police shot and killed 15-year-old Alexandros Grigoropoulos. His death triggered a fierce reaction across the country. But Alexandros’s tragic death was simply the spark. The real fuel for the fire came from Greece’s troubled economy.
Many of the people rioting are angry about the government’s handling of the economic crisis. The unions want higher social spending, wages and pensions. Greece’s two largest unions, the General Confederation of Workers of Greece (gsee) and the adedy civil servants union, had planned a public demonstration in protest of the failing economy before Alexandros’s shooting. The melee caused by this huge demonstration merged with the mass youth riots to create chaos on city streets in Greece and grind the nation to a standstill.
The Greek government can do little to fix the nation’s economy though. Greece’s fate was, in many ways, sealed seven years ago.
In 2001, Greece adopted the euro. At that point, Greece’s succeeding economic boom and following bust became inevitable. Columnist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explains the situation in the Telegraph:
"[T]here is obviously a problem for countries like Greece that were let into emu [Economic and Monetary Union] for political reasons before their economies had been reformed enough to cope with the rigors of euro life—over the long run. …Greece’s euro membership has now led to a warped economy. The current account deficit is 15 percent of gdp, the eurozone’s highest by far. Indeed, the deficit ($53 billion) is the sixth-biggest in the world in absolute terms—quite a feat for a country of 11 million people."
Greece’s foreign debt is a staggering 91 percent of its gross domestic product. Greece’s banks are in crisis. The government has pledged to bail them out with €28 billion. But with Greece’s economy in such bad condition, the Greek government will have difficulty borrowing the €28 billion it wants to give the banks. This could mean it will have to take the money away from its social welfare programs.
That would make social unrest in Greece even worse.
There is no way out. And, according to some analysts, it was designed from the beginning to become that way.
Bernard Connolly is a civil servant who authored The Rotten Heart of Europe, which exposed the evils of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the truth about the European Union. Over a year ago, he explained the process in an article in the Telegraph (quoted by theTrumpet.com):
"The EU quite deliberately created the most dangerous credit bubble of all: emu. And, whereas the mission of the Fed is to avoid a financial crisis, the mission of the ecb [European Central Bank] is to provoke one. The purpose of the crisis will be, as Prodi, then Commission president, said in 2002, to allow the EU to take more power for itself. The sacrificial victims will be, in the first instance, families and firms (and banks and investors) in countries such as Ireland and Club Med. Subsequently, German savers (or British taxpayers) will bear the burden of bailouts that a newly empowered 'EU economic government' will ordain."
When the current European economic union was formalized, it became inevitable that countries like Greece would eventually face economic challenges. Through the inclusion of Germany, the economic union allowed for European-wide interest rates that were much lower in countries like Greece than would normally have been possible. Low interest rates encouraged massive borrowing and artificially stimulated a boom. But as with all bubbles, eventually it popped. What Greece, and other countries in Southern Europe in particular, is dealing with now is the aftermath.
In addition, “Germany entered the euro with an overvalued exchange rate,” wrote Connolly. “It then faced a long period of high unemployment that drove wages down and restored its competitive position.” He continued:
"That combination, and Germany’s initial uncompetitiveness, created booms in many other emu countries. But, as in the U.S. in the 1920s and again in the 1990s, inappropriate interest rates and temporarily booming growth totally distorted perceptions of today versus tomorrow. The result has been that firms and families in these countries have massively over-borrowed and banks and investors have massively over-lent, often on the illusory security of inflated house prices."
The United States is currently trying to solve its debt-related problems by lowering its interest rates and making borrowing easier. This is treating the symptom: It may reduce the pain temporarily, but won’t fix anything in the long term. Nations like Greece, though, do not have even this option. They cannot change the interest rate to a level that suits them—they are stuck with whatever the ecb decides. And the ecb is most heavily influenced by Germany.
It is not just Greece that is caught in this trap. Spain’s economy too has gone through a similar process to what Connolly described, and now the International Monetary Fund is predicting that its unemployment will reach 15 percent. Ireland and Denmark are also paying the price of overheating their economies..."
Aloha, Brad
Who Will Stop the Greece Fires?
December 16, 2008 From theTrumpet.com
How the Greek riots were planned in advance. By Richard Palmer
"Greece is in trouble. Thousands of rioters rampaged through Athens. Angry youths attacked the Athens court house with petrol bombs. Broken glass and burned-out wreckage lay in the streets.
But the riots of the past week and a half are also a sign of a far greater upheaval that is threatening to engulf much of Europe.
Athens isn’t the only Greek city to be hit. Roughly half of the country’s workforce is on strike. One resident of Thessaloniki described the city as “a war zone.” Protesters wounded 12 police officers in 10 different cities in one night.
The rioting started December 6 after police shot and killed 15-year-old Alexandros Grigoropoulos. His death triggered a fierce reaction across the country. But Alexandros’s tragic death was simply the spark. The real fuel for the fire came from Greece’s troubled economy.
Many of the people rioting are angry about the government’s handling of the economic crisis. The unions want higher social spending, wages and pensions. Greece’s two largest unions, the General Confederation of Workers of Greece (gsee) and the adedy civil servants union, had planned a public demonstration in protest of the failing economy before Alexandros’s shooting. The melee caused by this huge demonstration merged with the mass youth riots to create chaos on city streets in Greece and grind the nation to a standstill.
The Greek government can do little to fix the nation’s economy though. Greece’s fate was, in many ways, sealed seven years ago.
In 2001, Greece adopted the euro. At that point, Greece’s succeeding economic boom and following bust became inevitable. Columnist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explains the situation in the Telegraph:
"[T]here is obviously a problem for countries like Greece that were let into emu [Economic and Monetary Union] for political reasons before their economies had been reformed enough to cope with the rigors of euro life—over the long run. …Greece’s euro membership has now led to a warped economy. The current account deficit is 15 percent of gdp, the eurozone’s highest by far. Indeed, the deficit ($53 billion) is the sixth-biggest in the world in absolute terms—quite a feat for a country of 11 million people."
Greece’s foreign debt is a staggering 91 percent of its gross domestic product. Greece’s banks are in crisis. The government has pledged to bail them out with €28 billion. But with Greece’s economy in such bad condition, the Greek government will have difficulty borrowing the €28 billion it wants to give the banks. This could mean it will have to take the money away from its social welfare programs.
That would make social unrest in Greece even worse.
There is no way out. And, according to some analysts, it was designed from the beginning to become that way.
Bernard Connolly is a civil servant who authored The Rotten Heart of Europe, which exposed the evils of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the truth about the European Union. Over a year ago, he explained the process in an article in the Telegraph (quoted by theTrumpet.com):
"The EU quite deliberately created the most dangerous credit bubble of all: emu. And, whereas the mission of the Fed is to avoid a financial crisis, the mission of the ecb [European Central Bank] is to provoke one. The purpose of the crisis will be, as Prodi, then Commission president, said in 2002, to allow the EU to take more power for itself. The sacrificial victims will be, in the first instance, families and firms (and banks and investors) in countries such as Ireland and Club Med. Subsequently, German savers (or British taxpayers) will bear the burden of bailouts that a newly empowered 'EU economic government' will ordain."
When the current European economic union was formalized, it became inevitable that countries like Greece would eventually face economic challenges. Through the inclusion of Germany, the economic union allowed for European-wide interest rates that were much lower in countries like Greece than would normally have been possible. Low interest rates encouraged massive borrowing and artificially stimulated a boom. But as with all bubbles, eventually it popped. What Greece, and other countries in Southern Europe in particular, is dealing with now is the aftermath.
In addition, “Germany entered the euro with an overvalued exchange rate,” wrote Connolly. “It then faced a long period of high unemployment that drove wages down and restored its competitive position.” He continued:
"That combination, and Germany’s initial uncompetitiveness, created booms in many other emu countries. But, as in the U.S. in the 1920s and again in the 1990s, inappropriate interest rates and temporarily booming growth totally distorted perceptions of today versus tomorrow. The result has been that firms and families in these countries have massively over-borrowed and banks and investors have massively over-lent, often on the illusory security of inflated house prices."
The United States is currently trying to solve its debt-related problems by lowering its interest rates and making borrowing easier. This is treating the symptom: It may reduce the pain temporarily, but won’t fix anything in the long term. Nations like Greece, though, do not have even this option. They cannot change the interest rate to a level that suits them—they are stuck with whatever the ecb decides. And the ecb is most heavily influenced by Germany.
It is not just Greece that is caught in this trap. Spain’s economy too has gone through a similar process to what Connolly described, and now the International Monetary Fund is predicting that its unemployment will reach 15 percent. Ireland and Denmark are also paying the price of overheating their economies..."
Aloha, Brad
December 16, 2008
Interest Rate Cut, Dollar Troubles, Hawaii Tourism Opportunity
Couple of good video links below on the shift in sentiment on the Dollar that has been taking place for a few weeks now and which accelerated with Fed actions today. With near 0% paid on on short-term U.S. Treasuries and only slightly more paid on long-term U.S. Bonds, as of today the Dollar is now losing value against all major currencies, not just the Yen and Swiss franc. This could end up having counter-productive results on the U.S. economy in the intermediate to long-term, but for the short-term this is a marketing opportunity for Hawaii visitors bureaus in almost all major currency markets for the coming Winter and Spring seasons. Nevertheless, so far there has not been much visitors bureaus action on this opportunity. It almost seems like they've given up. Two good video links follow along with news from today:
Video: Yen/ Dollar Discrepancy
Mon. Dec. 15 2008 5:13 AM
The Yen continues to be the go to currency, with Robert Sinche, Bank of America head, global FX strategy.
Video: Dollar to Lose Safe Haven Appeal?
Mon. Dec. 15 2008 2:32 PM
The U.S. dollar is likely to lose its appeal as a safe haven currency, believes John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Capital.
"Dollar Tumbles as Fed Cuts Rates to Record Low"
Reuters 16 Dec 2008 04:37 PM ET
"The U.S. dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates more than expected to a record low, further diminishing the appeal of the greenback.
The Fed cut its federal funds rate target to a range of zero to 0.25 percent from the previous target of 1.0 percent, and said it would use "all available tools" to dispel a year-long recession...
'The dollar is falling against all major currencies...because it was a larger-than-expected cut,' said Matt Esteve, a foreign exchange trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington. 'On one side, we effectively have a zero interest rate in the U.S., and on the other side, the Fed has sent a sign that they are ready to use all tools to help the U.S. economy out of recession,' he added...
The U.S. dollar had its biggest daily decline against the Swiss franc since 1995. It last traded over 3 percent lower against the European currency. Versus the yen, the dollar was down to near 89, within a striking distance to a 13-year low against the Japanese currency. The U.S. dollar also tumbled against the Australian and New Zealand dollars."
Short-term Hawaii tourism opportunity,
Aloha, Brad
Video: Yen/ Dollar Discrepancy
Mon. Dec. 15 2008 5:13 AM
The Yen continues to be the go to currency, with Robert Sinche, Bank of America head, global FX strategy.
Video: Dollar to Lose Safe Haven Appeal?
Mon. Dec. 15 2008 2:32 PM
The U.S. dollar is likely to lose its appeal as a safe haven currency, believes John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Capital.
"Dollar Tumbles as Fed Cuts Rates to Record Low"
Reuters 16 Dec 2008 04:37 PM ET
"The U.S. dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates more than expected to a record low, further diminishing the appeal of the greenback.
The Fed cut its federal funds rate target to a range of zero to 0.25 percent from the previous target of 1.0 percent, and said it would use "all available tools" to dispel a year-long recession...
'The dollar is falling against all major currencies...because it was a larger-than-expected cut,' said Matt Esteve, a foreign exchange trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington. 'On one side, we effectively have a zero interest rate in the U.S., and on the other side, the Fed has sent a sign that they are ready to use all tools to help the U.S. economy out of recession,' he added...
The U.S. dollar had its biggest daily decline against the Swiss franc since 1995. It last traded over 3 percent lower against the European currency. Versus the yen, the dollar was down to near 89, within a striking distance to a 13-year low against the Japanese currency. The U.S. dollar also tumbled against the Australian and New Zealand dollars."
Short-term Hawaii tourism opportunity,
Aloha, Brad
Towns and Cities Should Prepare for Peak Oil Presently
Previous post elicited a comment with links to the following from http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/:
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Towns and Cities Should Prepare for the Peak Oil Energy Crisis
"...Problems Facing the Towns and Cities
Local governments face the following problems from Peak Oil impacts: (1) declining revenues due to declining property values and declining family incomes; (2) increasing costs for gasoline, diesel, and heating oil; (3) inflation in the costs of equipment, materials, products, services, and electric power; (4) increasing unemployment and homelessness; (5) increasing crime; and (6) resource constraints in providing basic services, social services, and emergency services. As needs and problems expand the resources available to state and local governments will shrink.
What Can Towns and Cities Do?
Town and city managers should promptly inform elected and other appointed officials at the local level (including county boards and school boards) about the Peak Oil issue. Forwarding them this article would be one way to do this, and this article could be used to focus discussions on Peak Oil planning. All government officials should be informed so that they can begin planning and so that they are able to respond to questions from constituents and the press about what their government is doing to plan for Peak Oil impacts.
Local governments should establish a Peak Oil committee in their government to provide advice regarding Peak Oil risk management and contingency planning. This committee should concentrate on what the town or city can do to address the problems that the town or city faces. The Peak Oil committee should establish a state wide means of communicating with other local governments in the state. One suggestion is to establish a free Google blog for discussions and announcements, and every local government and citizen advisory committee can be authorized to add to this blog. Local libraries should be involved in this effort so that they can order relevant books and hold local community discussions.
Local government officials should also establish a Peak Oil citizen advisory committee that can advise the public and town/city government, as well as inform state government and congressional leaders. Because Peak Oil is a very controversial and emotional issue, it is wise that an independent blue ribbon committee of citizens advise the media, the public, and local and state governments about Peak Oil problems and plans. The selection of members to this committee is critical. People with general knowledge and community service experience are preferable to those who might want to work to solve national energy problems, instead of focusing on the problems facing the town, city, county, and state. There is also a tendency to focus on energy conservation to plan for Peak Oil. Conservation of individual and local government resources is important, especially if it saves town resources, but local conservation is not a solution to most problems that communities face. Similarly, there is a tendency to focus on ways of generating energy, such as purchasing expensive solar panels or wind turbines. In general, these are not solutions. When the power grid fails, local electric power is not very useful, and it will be useful only as long as storage batteries last. A focus on risk management and contingency planning must be maintained.
Some Ideas for Risk Management and Contingency Planning
1. Studying Peak Oil impacts carefully will enable sensible risk management and contingency planning. The Peak Oil Report provides an excellent review of Peak Oil impacts.
2. Develop contingency plans for a power grid failure, which can occur at anytime (the possibility of a power grid failure is discussed in the Peak Oil Report in the section “Multiple Crises and a Gridlock of Crises” toward the end of the report).
3. Plan for government revenue reductions.
4. Guard financial resources.
5. Review the capital budget for possible cuts. For example, some state and local governments are widening highways, although traffic on these highways will decline in the future.
6. Plan ahead for very expensive oil and natural gas in the future. For example, many town or city offices may have to reduce operations to 3 or 4 days a week to cut costs in heating and transportation. Public schools use much heating oil (or natural gas) and diesel for transportation. Should the school calendar be adjusted to avoid the most expensive months: December, January, and February? Should classes meet 3 or 4 days a week? These changes require action by state board of education and changes in union contracts, etc. This example shows that government officials and the public need to be informed about Peak Oil now so that they can plan ahead. The pressure for changes in the school calendar would have to come from the local level, as there are no signs that state governments are planning for Peak Oil impacts.
7. Plans should be made for reductions in the personnel budget, as choices will have to be made between reductions-in-force and across the board reductions-in-pay.
8. Develop an extensive library of books that will provide useful technology for after the time when the power grid has failed permanently. Although this time is years away, these books could be sold out quickly following a national energy related emergency, and then the books may not be available later. An example: penicillin is not difficult to make, if you know how; but if you don’t know, it would be very difficult to invent the process for making penicillin.
9. Certain hand tools should be purchased and stored in quantities. Today they are inexpensive and plentiful, but in the future, they won’t be available, for example: 2 man wood saws, bow saws, and axes.
Where to Go for More Information
There are very few good sources of information for governments concerning Peak Oil planning, but Surviving Peak Oil blog is a portal to relevant websites and blogs. Town and cities will have to create their own plans to prepare for Peak Oil impacts. A Peak Oil blog for town governments (mentioned above) is a good way to share information. Also, local and state governments across the nation can add their plans and ideas to the Wiki Site for “Peak Oil Preparation:”
Everyone is welcome to email or call me if they have questions or want comments on plans. I also provide presentations on these topics. My email address and telephone number can be included in any web posting of this article."
Cliff Wirth
clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com
References
“Crude Oil: Uncertainty about the Future Oil Supply Makes it Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production”
“Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society”
“Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management”
“Peak Oil Report”
Peak Oil Preparation Wiki Site
Surviving Peak Oil blog
About the Author
Cliff Wirth holds a Master of Public Administration degree (MPA) and a Ph.D. in Policy Analysis. He taught in three MPA programs, including the MPA program at the University of New Hampshire from 1981 to 2008, where he directed the MPA program for many years and implemented the extension MPA program in Manchester, NH in 1999. He has worked closely with hundreds of local, state, and federal officials on many projects. A number of his former students are current town and city managers in New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts. Posted by Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. on Sunday, December 14, 2008
Aloha, Brad
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Towns and Cities Should Prepare for the Peak Oil Energy Crisis
"...Problems Facing the Towns and Cities
Local governments face the following problems from Peak Oil impacts: (1) declining revenues due to declining property values and declining family incomes; (2) increasing costs for gasoline, diesel, and heating oil; (3) inflation in the costs of equipment, materials, products, services, and electric power; (4) increasing unemployment and homelessness; (5) increasing crime; and (6) resource constraints in providing basic services, social services, and emergency services. As needs and problems expand the resources available to state and local governments will shrink.
What Can Towns and Cities Do?
Town and city managers should promptly inform elected and other appointed officials at the local level (including county boards and school boards) about the Peak Oil issue. Forwarding them this article would be one way to do this, and this article could be used to focus discussions on Peak Oil planning. All government officials should be informed so that they can begin planning and so that they are able to respond to questions from constituents and the press about what their government is doing to plan for Peak Oil impacts.
Local governments should establish a Peak Oil committee in their government to provide advice regarding Peak Oil risk management and contingency planning. This committee should concentrate on what the town or city can do to address the problems that the town or city faces. The Peak Oil committee should establish a state wide means of communicating with other local governments in the state. One suggestion is to establish a free Google blog for discussions and announcements, and every local government and citizen advisory committee can be authorized to add to this blog. Local libraries should be involved in this effort so that they can order relevant books and hold local community discussions.
Local government officials should also establish a Peak Oil citizen advisory committee that can advise the public and town/city government, as well as inform state government and congressional leaders. Because Peak Oil is a very controversial and emotional issue, it is wise that an independent blue ribbon committee of citizens advise the media, the public, and local and state governments about Peak Oil problems and plans. The selection of members to this committee is critical. People with general knowledge and community service experience are preferable to those who might want to work to solve national energy problems, instead of focusing on the problems facing the town, city, county, and state. There is also a tendency to focus on energy conservation to plan for Peak Oil. Conservation of individual and local government resources is important, especially if it saves town resources, but local conservation is not a solution to most problems that communities face. Similarly, there is a tendency to focus on ways of generating energy, such as purchasing expensive solar panels or wind turbines. In general, these are not solutions. When the power grid fails, local electric power is not very useful, and it will be useful only as long as storage batteries last. A focus on risk management and contingency planning must be maintained.
Some Ideas for Risk Management and Contingency Planning
1. Studying Peak Oil impacts carefully will enable sensible risk management and contingency planning. The Peak Oil Report provides an excellent review of Peak Oil impacts.
2. Develop contingency plans for a power grid failure, which can occur at anytime (the possibility of a power grid failure is discussed in the Peak Oil Report in the section “Multiple Crises and a Gridlock of Crises” toward the end of the report).
3. Plan for government revenue reductions.
4. Guard financial resources.
5. Review the capital budget for possible cuts. For example, some state and local governments are widening highways, although traffic on these highways will decline in the future.
6. Plan ahead for very expensive oil and natural gas in the future. For example, many town or city offices may have to reduce operations to 3 or 4 days a week to cut costs in heating and transportation. Public schools use much heating oil (or natural gas) and diesel for transportation. Should the school calendar be adjusted to avoid the most expensive months: December, January, and February? Should classes meet 3 or 4 days a week? These changes require action by state board of education and changes in union contracts, etc. This example shows that government officials and the public need to be informed about Peak Oil now so that they can plan ahead. The pressure for changes in the school calendar would have to come from the local level, as there are no signs that state governments are planning for Peak Oil impacts.
7. Plans should be made for reductions in the personnel budget, as choices will have to be made between reductions-in-force and across the board reductions-in-pay.
8. Develop an extensive library of books that will provide useful technology for after the time when the power grid has failed permanently. Although this time is years away, these books could be sold out quickly following a national energy related emergency, and then the books may not be available later. An example: penicillin is not difficult to make, if you know how; but if you don’t know, it would be very difficult to invent the process for making penicillin.
9. Certain hand tools should be purchased and stored in quantities. Today they are inexpensive and plentiful, but in the future, they won’t be available, for example: 2 man wood saws, bow saws, and axes.
Where to Go for More Information
There are very few good sources of information for governments concerning Peak Oil planning, but Surviving Peak Oil blog is a portal to relevant websites and blogs. Town and cities will have to create their own plans to prepare for Peak Oil impacts. A Peak Oil blog for town governments (mentioned above) is a good way to share information. Also, local and state governments across the nation can add their plans and ideas to the Wiki Site for “Peak Oil Preparation:”
Everyone is welcome to email or call me if they have questions or want comments on plans. I also provide presentations on these topics. My email address and telephone number can be included in any web posting of this article."
Cliff Wirth
clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com
References
“Crude Oil: Uncertainty about the Future Oil Supply Makes it Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production”
“Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society”
“Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management”
“Peak Oil Report”
Peak Oil Preparation Wiki Site
Surviving Peak Oil blog
About the Author
Cliff Wirth holds a Master of Public Administration degree (MPA) and a Ph.D. in Policy Analysis. He taught in three MPA programs, including the MPA program at the University of New Hampshire from 1981 to 2008, where he directed the MPA program for many years and implemented the extension MPA program in Manchester, NH in 1999. He has worked closely with hundreds of local, state, and federal officials on many projects. A number of his former students are current town and city managers in New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts. Posted by Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. on Sunday, December 14, 2008
Aloha, Brad
Oil supply will have peaked by 2020, says IEA energy agency
When will the oil run out?
George Monbiot interviews Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency - (Video: George Monbiot meets Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, See: Link to this video)
"...In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US department of energy, the oil analyst Robert L Hirsch concluded that "without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs" of world oil supplies peaking "will be unprecedented". He went on to explain what "timely mitigation" meant. Even a worldwide emergency response "10 years before world oil peaking", he wrote, would leave "a liquid-fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked". To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin "a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking". If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we're in deep ****.
So burn this into your mind: between 2007 and 2008 the IEA radically changed its assessment. Until this year's report, the agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak. In the foreword to a book it published in 2005, its executive director, Claude Mandil, dismissed those who warned of this event as "doomsayers". "The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern," he wrote. "Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future." In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year. This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. But the new report, published last month, carried a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7%, which means a much greater gap to fill..."
Oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency
Terry Macalister and George Monbiot
The Guardian, Monday 15 December 2008
"Global oil production will peak much earlier than expected amid a collapse in petroleum investment due to the credit crunch, one of the world's foremost experts has revealed.
Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.
The prediction came as oil companies from Saudi Arabia to Canada cut their capital expenditure on new projects in response to a fall in oil prices, moves that will further reduce supply in future.
Birol's comments will give more ammunition to those who warn that the British government is dangerously complacent in not trying to wean the country off oil as quickly as possible. Some observers believe that, because the global economy is underpinned by oil, the peaking of supply will cause severe economic, social and political disruption unless prepared for over many years.
John Hemming, chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas, said Birol's "conversion" was significant. "The penny has finally dropped - geological issues matter as well as political and economic. The IEA - unlike our government - appears to be leaving cloud cuckoo land finally," he added.
The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which so-called conventional oil would peak. It said last month that total crude output could peak in 2030. Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oil fields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.
Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of solar energy company Solarcentury, said Birol's views underplayed the scale of the problem. "The IEA is very constrained in what it can say - by the demands of its constituent governments - so you have to read between the lines. We believe that peak oil will come about in 2013 at the latest but the real concern from the IEA is the adjustment of production figures," he said.
The energy agency, which represents most western governments including the UK and US, has been backtracking rapidly on previous positions.
Three years ago the Paris-based organisation still denied there was any fundamental threat to the world's petroleum economy."
See also: http://www.monbiot.com/
Aloha, Brad
George Monbiot interviews Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency - (Video: George Monbiot meets Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, See: Link to this video)
"...In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US department of energy, the oil analyst Robert L Hirsch concluded that "without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs" of world oil supplies peaking "will be unprecedented". He went on to explain what "timely mitigation" meant. Even a worldwide emergency response "10 years before world oil peaking", he wrote, would leave "a liquid-fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked". To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin "a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking". If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we're in deep ****.
So burn this into your mind: between 2007 and 2008 the IEA radically changed its assessment. Until this year's report, the agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak. In the foreword to a book it published in 2005, its executive director, Claude Mandil, dismissed those who warned of this event as "doomsayers". "The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern," he wrote. "Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future." In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year. This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. But the new report, published last month, carried a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7%, which means a much greater gap to fill..."
Oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency
Terry Macalister and George Monbiot
The Guardian, Monday 15 December 2008
"Global oil production will peak much earlier than expected amid a collapse in petroleum investment due to the credit crunch, one of the world's foremost experts has revealed.
Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.
The prediction came as oil companies from Saudi Arabia to Canada cut their capital expenditure on new projects in response to a fall in oil prices, moves that will further reduce supply in future.
Birol's comments will give more ammunition to those who warn that the British government is dangerously complacent in not trying to wean the country off oil as quickly as possible. Some observers believe that, because the global economy is underpinned by oil, the peaking of supply will cause severe economic, social and political disruption unless prepared for over many years.
John Hemming, chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas, said Birol's "conversion" was significant. "The penny has finally dropped - geological issues matter as well as political and economic. The IEA - unlike our government - appears to be leaving cloud cuckoo land finally," he added.
The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which so-called conventional oil would peak. It said last month that total crude output could peak in 2030. Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oil fields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.
Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of solar energy company Solarcentury, said Birol's views underplayed the scale of the problem. "The IEA is very constrained in what it can say - by the demands of its constituent governments - so you have to read between the lines. We believe that peak oil will come about in 2013 at the latest but the real concern from the IEA is the adjustment of production figures," he said.
The energy agency, which represents most western governments including the UK and US, has been backtracking rapidly on previous positions.
Three years ago the Paris-based organisation still denied there was any fundamental threat to the world's petroleum economy."
See also: http://www.monbiot.com/
Aloha, Brad
Current State of Japanese Tourists Abroad?
In follow-up to the following posts: Flash to the Hawaii Visitor's Industry...It's Japan and the Yen and Opportunity Now for Kauai and Hawaii in Japan and on the Mainland and Oil Price Changing Short-term Outlook for Hawaii, was looking for data on the current state of Japanese travel abroad and the condition of Japanese consumers discretionary spending.
Haven't been able to find a whole lot of data yet, and what I have found is only through Sept. and Oct., whereas the Yen has appreciated significantly since then. Still looking, but one good online source that I did find is JTM - Japanese Tourism Marketing Co.. Lot of interesting information throughout their web page. The following caught my attention: Statistics of Japanese Tourists Travelling Abroad.
Still have not found data for November, much less December. Also have not found indication what the true state of Japanese consumer discretionary spending is currently.
Aloha, Brad
Haven't been able to find a whole lot of data yet, and what I have found is only through Sept. and Oct., whereas the Yen has appreciated significantly since then. Still looking, but one good online source that I did find is JTM - Japanese Tourism Marketing Co.. Lot of interesting information throughout their web page. The following caught my attention: Statistics of Japanese Tourists Travelling Abroad.
Still have not found data for November, much less December. Also have not found indication what the true state of Japanese consumer discretionary spending is currently.
Aloha, Brad
December 15, 2008
Video Update on Greece
I notice the Western media is not covering it, but the riots are continuing in Athens:
Aloha, Brad
Aloha, Brad
December 14, 2008
Simmons on IEA: "Current 73 million barrels of oil a day to 25 million b/d by 2030"
David Ward of Kauai's notes from the below audio link interview of December 13, 2008:
"Matthew Simmons says that the IEA's actual position as stated by Dr. Fatih Birol, (IEA Cheif Economist) in 'quiet' briefings to world governments is that:
'Basically the game is over.... Based on the most optimistic assumptions they can make (using their access to the best raw data in the world - 798 fields) current crude oil production of 73 million barrels a day will be down to 25 million barrels a day by 2030.'
And that's absolutely the best possible case. The IEA's worst case is 9 million barrels per day by 2030 according to Simmons (although he thinks even that could be optimistic).
Both Simmons and Hirsch go out of their way to praise the IEA to the utmost for actually getting the real message out in private. The only reason they didn't say it out loud is because they were leaned on to 'not shout fire in a crowded theatre' and forced to tone down the published report according to Simmons."
December 13, 2008
THE FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR
Hosted by Jim Puplava
2nd Hour Guest Experts
Select an Audio Format to Listen
Click on: RealPlayer WinAmp Windows Media Mp3
Energy Roundtable
Matthew R. Simmons Chairman, Simmons & Company International
Dr. Robert L. Hirsch Senior Energy Advisor at MISI & consultant in energy, technology and management
Aloha, Brad
"Matthew Simmons says that the IEA's actual position as stated by Dr. Fatih Birol, (IEA Cheif Economist) in 'quiet' briefings to world governments is that:
'Basically the game is over.... Based on the most optimistic assumptions they can make (using their access to the best raw data in the world - 798 fields) current crude oil production of 73 million barrels a day will be down to 25 million barrels a day by 2030.'
And that's absolutely the best possible case. The IEA's worst case is 9 million barrels per day by 2030 according to Simmons (although he thinks even that could be optimistic).
Both Simmons and Hirsch go out of their way to praise the IEA to the utmost for actually getting the real message out in private. The only reason they didn't say it out loud is because they were leaned on to 'not shout fire in a crowded theatre' and forced to tone down the published report according to Simmons."
December 13, 2008
THE FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR
Hosted by Jim Puplava
2nd Hour Guest Experts
Select an Audio Format to Listen
Click on: RealPlayer WinAmp Windows Media Mp3
Energy Roundtable
Matthew R. Simmons Chairman, Simmons & Company International
Dr. Robert L. Hirsch Senior Energy Advisor at MISI & consultant in energy, technology and management
Aloha, Brad
New Zealand Reporting on Public Transport, Real Estate, and China
"AYF's" Riding Auckland, New Zealand Public Transport and Localization
Straight Talk on Queenstown, New Zealand Property Implosion
New Zealand Reporting on Tough Times in China
Aloha, Brad
Straight Talk on Queenstown, New Zealand Property Implosion
New Zealand Reporting on Tough Times in China
Aloha, Brad
December 13, 2008
Twenty Ways to Slash your Utility Bill
"20 ways to slash your utility bill"
By By Jim Gorman, Popular Mechanics
"Where George Scott sees red, his clients are bleeding green.
Scanning the outside of a ranch home in Longmont, Colo., the energy auditor’s infrared camera registered blue and aqua in spots where heated air stayed put.
That’s what the homeowner expected. “He thought he’d done everything right,” Scott said, because he had tackled obvious stuff like adding insulation. “But he was baffled by his high gas bills.”
But when the camera scanned the attic, the viewfinder found orange and red blobs where warm air gushed by the chimney, 20 recessed lights and two uninsulated hatches. After the inspection, the homeowner plugged those leaks with about $50 in caulk, sheet metal and spray foam insulation, Scott said. “I estimate his gas use will drop 300 therms, or about $300, this winter.”
But you don’t need an infrared camera to reveal utility-bill busters that are left after the obvious stuff is done. You just need the right point of view. Big energy leaks are often hiding in plain sight, and many of them are easy to fix — you may not even need tools. Here’s how to get started:
Electronics and appliances
1. Unplug the beer fridge: That old clunker of a refrigerator in the basement could be costing the equivalent of 10 cases of Bud in wasted energy each year. A refrigerator built in 1993 gobbles twice as much energy as new models. Need more cold brew for a party? Plug in the fridge the night before.
Cost: $0. Monthly savings: $12.50. Payback: immediate
2. Plug the power drain: As much as 75% of electricity use by electronics occurs while the devices are off. Big-screen TVs, sound systems and computer peripherals are some of the worst offenders. Curtail the loss with power strips that kill power when they sense inactivity.
Cost: $115. Monthly savings: $3. Payback: 3 years.
3. Give the sump pump a break: A 0.5 horsepower sump pump can use $30 a month in electricity during wet spring months, estimates Bill McAnally, an advisor to the Iowa Energy Center and an instructor in energy-efficient building. “You’re better off extending downspouts another 5 feet into the yard to move rainwater away from the basement,” he says.
Cost: $16. Monthly savings: $6.25. Payback: 2.5 months.
4. Maximize CFLs:We’ve all heard the advice to switch to compact fluorescent lights. To get the maximum bang for your CFL buck, install the bulbs for their rated use, which will help them last longer. For example, use bulbs that are designed for down-facing, enclosed receptacles in ceiling lights. Other CFLs are rated for use in fixtures plugged into a timer. Also, for a more rapid return on investment, use CFLs in fixtures that are on at least three hours a day.
Cost: $3.22 per 15-watt CFL. Monthly savings: 57 cents. Payback: 6 months.
Heating and cooling systems
5. Seal ducts: Put away the duct tape; you need a better seal. Between 25% and 40% of the hot and cold air entering ducts escapes through joints, seams and gaps — many covered with poorly applied tape. That’s hard-earned money disappearing. Cut your losses by sealing duct joints with mastic, a paint-on putty, and patch holes with aluminum tape. If supply ducts have insulation, peel it back to seal the collars. Pay particular attention to elbows, advises Iowa Energy’s McAnally. “That’s where pressure builds and the air wants out,” he says. And don’t neglect return ducts. Leaks in returns strain your heating and cooling system and can cause pressure differentials that result in hot summer air or cold winter air being sucked into the house.
Cost: $40. Monthly savings: $9.33. Payback: 4 months.
6. Program the thermostat: Install an Energy Star–qualified programmable thermostat that automatically adjusts heating and cooling temperatures based on a daily schedule. For every degree you push the thermostat beyond your usual set points, you save an additional 2% on utility charges. Some utilities, such as Austin Energy in Texas, provide free thermostats, so inquire before you buy.
Cost: $42. Monthly savings: $15. Payback: 3 months.
7. Keep A/C filters and coils clean: A dirty air filter reduces airflow, and a dirty condenser coil retains heat and is less efficient. The two can increase the system’s power consumption by 10% or more. Clean the condenser coil every two years and change filters monthly during peak cooling and heating seasons.
Cost: $50. Monthly savings: $8.33. Payback: 6 months.
8. Catch a breeze: Ceiling fans minimize the need for air conditioning in summer, or at least allow you to nudge the thermostat up a few degrees, and they enhance winter comfort.
Cost: $100. Monthly savings: $1.33. Payback: 6.5 years.
9. Add humidity: Dry air retains less heat and feels cooler against the skin. Increase ambient humidity with a humidifier this winter, and edge the thermostat down a degree or two.
Cost: $72, for three humidifiers. Monthly savings: $3.85. Payback: 1.5 years.
Plumbing
10. Throttle back showers: Showers account for 26% of a household’s hot-water use. Installing a low-flow shower head can shrink that flood from 3.5 gallons per minute to 1.5 gallons.
Cost: $9, for two no-frills, 1.5 gallon-per-minute heads. Monthly savings: $15. Payback: 3 weeks.
11. Slow the flow: A faucet aerator can save 400 gallons of hot water a year. Translation: less work for the water heater. If the rated flow on your current aerator is visible, and if it’s above 2.75 gallons per minute, then replace it with a more efficient model that emits 1.5 gallons a minute or less. If the aerator’s flow rate has been scuffed off or it’s too hard to read, just replace it. The new aerator will likely have lower flow.
Cost: $4.80 for three aerators. Monthly savings: 93 cents. Payback: 5 months.
12. Stop drips: A slow leak of 10 drips per minute from a hot-water faucet wastes 526 gallons a year, or about the equivalent of emptying and refilling a 40-gallon water heater 13 times. Swapping in a new washer or O-ring is an easy fix, even for a novice do-it-yourselfer.
Cost: $1. Monthly savings: 35 cents. Payback: 3 months.
Chimneys, windows, attics and basements
13. Block the stairs: The attic may be sealed tight and insulated to R-39, but you’ve overlooked a gaping 21-square-foot hole that’s hemorrhaging money: the pull-down stairs. You can buy an insulated cover or build your own from rigid polystyrene insulation and multipurpose construction adhesive.
Cost: $120 for a pre-made tent. Monthly savings: $4.16. Payback: 2.5 years.
14. Stuff the chimney: On average, 14% of the air leaking in and out of a house flows through the chimney. If you use your fireplace infrequently, seal it with an inflatable draft stopper or make your own with a garbage bag stuffed with fiberglass insulation.
Cost: $50. Monthly savings: $2.33. Payback: 21 months.
15. Upgrade windows: Replacing old, single-pane windows with high-performance, double-glazed, low-e windows — special coating (low-emissivity) reflects the sun’s heat, but not sunlight — seems like a good idea, but at a cost of several hundred dollars each you’ll wait awhile for the payoff. Inexpensive storm windows offer quick payback, especially for do-it-yourselfers. In testing performed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, exterior storm windows reduced winter heat loss in single-pane windows by 29%, whereas double-pane window replacements saved 47%.
Wash only full loads in dishwashers and washing machines. Save $51 per month.
Turn the water heater down to 120 degrees from 140. Save $22/m.
Remove room air conditioners during winter. Save $40/m.
Use Energy Saver features on dishwashers, dryers, fridges and freezers. Save $21/m.
Wash clothes in cold water. Save $33/m.
Air-dry clothes during the warmest six months. Save $57/m."
Aloha, Brad
By By Jim Gorman, Popular Mechanics
"Where George Scott sees red, his clients are bleeding green.
Scanning the outside of a ranch home in Longmont, Colo., the energy auditor’s infrared camera registered blue and aqua in spots where heated air stayed put.
That’s what the homeowner expected. “He thought he’d done everything right,” Scott said, because he had tackled obvious stuff like adding insulation. “But he was baffled by his high gas bills.”
But when the camera scanned the attic, the viewfinder found orange and red blobs where warm air gushed by the chimney, 20 recessed lights and two uninsulated hatches. After the inspection, the homeowner plugged those leaks with about $50 in caulk, sheet metal and spray foam insulation, Scott said. “I estimate his gas use will drop 300 therms, or about $300, this winter.”
But you don’t need an infrared camera to reveal utility-bill busters that are left after the obvious stuff is done. You just need the right point of view. Big energy leaks are often hiding in plain sight, and many of them are easy to fix — you may not even need tools. Here’s how to get started:
Electronics and appliances
1. Unplug the beer fridge: That old clunker of a refrigerator in the basement could be costing the equivalent of 10 cases of Bud in wasted energy each year. A refrigerator built in 1993 gobbles twice as much energy as new models. Need more cold brew for a party? Plug in the fridge the night before.
Cost: $0. Monthly savings: $12.50. Payback: immediate
2. Plug the power drain: As much as 75% of electricity use by electronics occurs while the devices are off. Big-screen TVs, sound systems and computer peripherals are some of the worst offenders. Curtail the loss with power strips that kill power when they sense inactivity.
Cost: $115. Monthly savings: $3. Payback: 3 years.
3. Give the sump pump a break: A 0.5 horsepower sump pump can use $30 a month in electricity during wet spring months, estimates Bill McAnally, an advisor to the Iowa Energy Center and an instructor in energy-efficient building. “You’re better off extending downspouts another 5 feet into the yard to move rainwater away from the basement,” he says.
Cost: $16. Monthly savings: $6.25. Payback: 2.5 months.
4. Maximize CFLs:We’ve all heard the advice to switch to compact fluorescent lights. To get the maximum bang for your CFL buck, install the bulbs for their rated use, which will help them last longer. For example, use bulbs that are designed for down-facing, enclosed receptacles in ceiling lights. Other CFLs are rated for use in fixtures plugged into a timer. Also, for a more rapid return on investment, use CFLs in fixtures that are on at least three hours a day.
Cost: $3.22 per 15-watt CFL. Monthly savings: 57 cents. Payback: 6 months.
Heating and cooling systems
5. Seal ducts: Put away the duct tape; you need a better seal. Between 25% and 40% of the hot and cold air entering ducts escapes through joints, seams and gaps — many covered with poorly applied tape. That’s hard-earned money disappearing. Cut your losses by sealing duct joints with mastic, a paint-on putty, and patch holes with aluminum tape. If supply ducts have insulation, peel it back to seal the collars. Pay particular attention to elbows, advises Iowa Energy’s McAnally. “That’s where pressure builds and the air wants out,” he says. And don’t neglect return ducts. Leaks in returns strain your heating and cooling system and can cause pressure differentials that result in hot summer air or cold winter air being sucked into the house.
Cost: $40. Monthly savings: $9.33. Payback: 4 months.
6. Program the thermostat: Install an Energy Star–qualified programmable thermostat that automatically adjusts heating and cooling temperatures based on a daily schedule. For every degree you push the thermostat beyond your usual set points, you save an additional 2% on utility charges. Some utilities, such as Austin Energy in Texas, provide free thermostats, so inquire before you buy.
Cost: $42. Monthly savings: $15. Payback: 3 months.
7. Keep A/C filters and coils clean: A dirty air filter reduces airflow, and a dirty condenser coil retains heat and is less efficient. The two can increase the system’s power consumption by 10% or more. Clean the condenser coil every two years and change filters monthly during peak cooling and heating seasons.
Cost: $50. Monthly savings: $8.33. Payback: 6 months.
8. Catch a breeze: Ceiling fans minimize the need for air conditioning in summer, or at least allow you to nudge the thermostat up a few degrees, and they enhance winter comfort.
Cost: $100. Monthly savings: $1.33. Payback: 6.5 years.
9. Add humidity: Dry air retains less heat and feels cooler against the skin. Increase ambient humidity with a humidifier this winter, and edge the thermostat down a degree or two.
Cost: $72, for three humidifiers. Monthly savings: $3.85. Payback: 1.5 years.
Plumbing
10. Throttle back showers: Showers account for 26% of a household’s hot-water use. Installing a low-flow shower head can shrink that flood from 3.5 gallons per minute to 1.5 gallons.
Cost: $9, for two no-frills, 1.5 gallon-per-minute heads. Monthly savings: $15. Payback: 3 weeks.
11. Slow the flow: A faucet aerator can save 400 gallons of hot water a year. Translation: less work for the water heater. If the rated flow on your current aerator is visible, and if it’s above 2.75 gallons per minute, then replace it with a more efficient model that emits 1.5 gallons a minute or less. If the aerator’s flow rate has been scuffed off or it’s too hard to read, just replace it. The new aerator will likely have lower flow.
Cost: $4.80 for three aerators. Monthly savings: 93 cents. Payback: 5 months.
12. Stop drips: A slow leak of 10 drips per minute from a hot-water faucet wastes 526 gallons a year, or about the equivalent of emptying and refilling a 40-gallon water heater 13 times. Swapping in a new washer or O-ring is an easy fix, even for a novice do-it-yourselfer.
Cost: $1. Monthly savings: 35 cents. Payback: 3 months.
Chimneys, windows, attics and basements
13. Block the stairs: The attic may be sealed tight and insulated to R-39, but you’ve overlooked a gaping 21-square-foot hole that’s hemorrhaging money: the pull-down stairs. You can buy an insulated cover or build your own from rigid polystyrene insulation and multipurpose construction adhesive.
Cost: $120 for a pre-made tent. Monthly savings: $4.16. Payback: 2.5 years.
14. Stuff the chimney: On average, 14% of the air leaking in and out of a house flows through the chimney. If you use your fireplace infrequently, seal it with an inflatable draft stopper or make your own with a garbage bag stuffed with fiberglass insulation.
Cost: $50. Monthly savings: $2.33. Payback: 21 months.
15. Upgrade windows: Replacing old, single-pane windows with high-performance, double-glazed, low-e windows — special coating (low-emissivity) reflects the sun’s heat, but not sunlight — seems like a good idea, but at a cost of several hundred dollars each you’ll wait awhile for the payoff. Inexpensive storm windows offer quick payback, especially for do-it-yourselfers. In testing performed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, exterior storm windows reduced winter heat loss in single-pane windows by 29%, whereas double-pane window replacements saved 47%.
Wash only full loads in dishwashers and washing machines. Save $51 per month.
Turn the water heater down to 120 degrees from 140. Save $22/m.
Remove room air conditioners during winter. Save $40/m.
Use Energy Saver features on dishwashers, dryers, fridges and freezers. Save $21/m.
Wash clothes in cold water. Save $33/m.
Air-dry clothes during the warmest six months. Save $57/m."
Aloha, Brad
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