Hawaii Visitor Industry Cratering as we Speak

The Council on Revenues, UHERO, Brewbaker, Laney, et. al. all still have relatively optimistic economic forecasts for the Hawaii economy and government revenues for the coming Quarter. But, they all use lagging data, not current data, and do not use hotel reservation bookings data for future months to forecast, but we do.

Traditionally Dec., Jan., Feb., and March are good seasonal months for Hawaii's visitor industry and economy. It will be different this year. We just finished a good December 2009 which when it is reported will be a substantial improvement over December 2008.

But, right now, the Hawaii Visitor Industry is Cratering. Many hotels across the state have reservation bookings for January and February of 30% or less. This is unprecedented, esp. for February, usually one of the better months of the year in Hawaii. It is true that bookings on only a few weeks notice could bump that occupancy number up a bit, but it won't likely be anymore than doubling, and 60% in February would still be 10% to 20% below normal for most hotels in February.

Make no mistake about it, the Hawaii Visitor Industry is getting ready to Fall Off A Cliff. This won't be reported until March or April by the above mentioned conservative economists. By then it will also worsen the State's fiscal situation by significantly more than the $1 billion shortfall that Legislators are currently being told.

Word to the wise, you have been forewarned.