Debris from Japanese Tsunami to Reach U.S. Soon

Source for below: http://marinedebris.noaa.gov/info/japanfaqs.html

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS: Marine Debris Generated from the 2011 Japan Tsunami

Download an informational handout on what we know about Japan tsunami marine debris (344kb).

Of all Earth’s natural hazards, tsunamis may be among the most infrequent, but they pose a major threat to coastal populations, particularly in the seismically active Pacific Ocean. The tragedy of the March 2011 tsunami in Japan had far-reaching effects that included the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii. As the tsunami receded from land, it washed much of what was in the inundation zone into the ocean. Heavier materials sank closer to shore while the buoyant materials went on to make up the debris fields we have seen in satellite imagery and aerial photos of the waters surrounding Japan. Below are information and answers to some frequently asked questions about the marine debris generated from the tsunami in Japan. Please stay tuned to this webpage for updates and more information.

FAQs:

1. When will the debris from the tsunami in Japan reach the U.S.?

2. How much debris is there? Is there a debris field?
   5 to 20 million tons of Japan tsunami marine debris

3. Is the debris radioactive?

4. What about navigational safety hazards created by the tsunami debris?

5. What is NOAA doing about the tsunami-generated marine debris?

6. How should we begin monitoring our shoreline debris?

7. How do I report significant sightings of at-sea marine debris?

8. Where can I get more information about tsunamis?

Acknowledgments

When will the debris from the tsunami in Japan reach the U.S.?

Many variables affect whether and how long it will take debris items from Japan to reach the U.S. For most areas it is a matter of years, not days or weeks. Scientists are relying on computer models to predict the debris items’ path, but models can only assume general direction and timing. Since winds and ocean currents constantly change, it’s very difficult to predict an exact date and locationfor the debris’ arrival on our shores without more information.

Independent models run by NOAA and University of Hawaii researchers agree on the general direction and drift rate of debris generated by the tsunami in Japan. Right now, models tell us some debris could pass near or wash ashore in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as early as this (2011/2012) winter (based on reported sightings of debris by the Russian ship STS Pallada(September 2011)), approach the West Coast of the United States in 2013, and circle back to Hawaii (main Hawaiian Islands) in 2014 to 2016.

Contact James Churnside in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) to discuss the NOAA Ocean Surface Current Simulator model. Contact University of Hawaii’s Drs. Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner (International Pacific Research Center) to discuss their model.

NOAA has run OSCURS (Ocean Surface Current Simulator), a numeric model for ocean surface currents, to predict the movement of marine debris generated by the Japan tsunami over five years. The results are shown here. Year 1 = red; Year 2 = orange; Year 3 = yellow; Year 4 = light blue; Year 5 = violet. The OCSURS model is used to measure the movement of surface currents over time, as well as the movement of what is in or on the water. Map courtesy of J. Churnside (NOAA OAR) and created through Google.

How much debris is there? Is there a debris field?

First, the debris is not in a “debris field” rather, there are many items scattered across a large area of the North Pacific. The debris clumped together when it first washed into the ocean, but it has since dispersed, making it very difficult to locate. Some items may break apart into smaller pieces or sink, depending on what the item is made of. It is very difficult to detect individual pieces of debris with satellite imagery.

5 to 20 million tons of Japan tsunami marine debris?

We were unable to find the source of the figures quoted in the media of five to 20 million tons of marine debris generated by the Japan tsunami. A figure of 25 million tons has been mentioned in the media, but that is an estimate of the total quantity of debris from the disaster (Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan).

Is the debris radioactive?

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Food and Drug Administration are monitoring for radioactivity. It is considered highly unlikely the tsunami-generated marine debris would be contaminated with radioactive material. Because the debris was washed out to sea before the release of radioactive water from the power plant, the contamination route is improbable. Additionally, radioactivity of debris sighted by the Russian ship STS Pallada in September 2011 was measured by the crew with a Geiger counter. Results showed no radioactivity.

What about navigational safety hazards created by the tsunami debris?

If you have questions about navigation safety, please contact theU.S. Coast Guard and view the U.S. Department of Transportation'sMARAD advisory.

What is NOAA doing about the tsunami-generated marine debris?

NOAA is doing several things:

• The NOAA Marine Debris Program (MDP) is coordinating with internal and external NOAA partners to explore the best actions for addressing the debris.

• The MDP is working with internal and external NOAA partners on a Japan Tsunami Marine Debris Assessment and Response Framework for holistic and cooperative planning to respond to the potential threats posed by marine debris resulting from the Japan tsunami.

• NOAA is one of the lead members on a Japan Tsunami Debris Workgroup including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and University of Hawaii researchers among others.

• NOAA is working with EPA on a joint informational "Tsunami Debris Workgroup Bulletin." Sign up to receive this bulletin.

• NOAA is gathering information on significant sightings of marine debris in the N. Pacific through NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operation’s Pacific fleet of vessels, the NOAA Voluntary Observing Ship Program, and NOAA Pacific Islands Regional Observer Program and their work with the Hawaii longline fishing industry.

• NOAA is working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service onshoreline debris monitoring in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

• NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) tracked the debris. Soon after the tsunami, fields of debris were visible from satellites. Over time the debris dispersed, and as of April 14, NESDIS could no longer detect debris in satellite imagery.

• NOAA convened scientists to review available data, including modeling output, and provide insight on debris fate and transport.

How should we begin monitoring our shoreline debris?

The NOAA Marine Debris Program (MDP) is happy to provide information to individuals or groups interested in undertaking shoreline monitoring studies for Japan tsunami marine debris. Effective monitoring of changes in environmental conditions, such as the abundance of marine debris, requires a good deal of forethought. Here are some tips and suggestions:

1. Clear objectives and methods: Monitoring projects should have clearly stated objectives and use agreed-upon methods and field measurements to allow for comparability of data with previous research and that conducted in other areas.
2. Baseline data monitoring: In order to detect a change in the concentration of marine debris over time, reliable baseline data is needed. Thus, if you are interested in monitoring to detect a pulse of tsunami-related debris, we suggest regular sampling begin well before the expected arrival of the tsunami debris in your area. At least one year would be ideal.
3. Debris type information: Gathering information on the type of debris found (e.g., lumber, plastic, rubber, fabric, metal, glass) is important. With this information, changes in the types and amounts of marine debris over time may be seen. For example, you may begin to notice an unusual increase in a certain type of debris item around the time of predicted tsunami debris arrival to your area.
4. There’s an app for that: If you who wish to contribute to the collection of baseline marine debris information, consider downloading and using the Marine Debris Tracker smartphone application (http://www.marinedebris.engr.uga.edu/) to record, visualize, and share data.

To request a copy of the MDP's Shoreline Survey Field Guide and electronic data sheet please send an email toMDsightings@gmail.com.

How do I report significant sightings of at-sea marine debris?

Information on significant marine debris sightings in the North Pacific Ocean is greatly needed and can be reported toMDsightings@gmail.com (please indicate if the information can be displayed on a public website).

Where can I get more information about tsunamis?

A wealth of information exists on tsunamis, including:
http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/om/brochures/tsunami.htm
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/
and many more.

Acknowledgments

This information was compiled with the information and expertise of representatives from NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Marine Fisheries Service, and National Ocean Service as well as the International Pacific Research Center (UH Manoa), U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and U.S. Coast Guard.